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CMI Working Paper 112

Working Paper 112: Additional analyses of the experience of pension annuities in payment, 2011-2014
Important note: Since issuing Working Paper 112, we have processed data for more recent years and are aiming to release “all offices” results for the years 2011 to 2016 in January 2019. We want to highlight to users that resubmissions of data covering the years 2011-2014 data from several insurers has created some uncertainty around the dataset underlying both Working Paper 101 and Working Paper 112. Find further information on this issue and our next steps

Working Paper 112 was published in November 2018. The working paper describes additional analyses of pension annuities in payment over the period 2011 to 2014. This follows Working Paper 101 which was issued in July 2017 alongside the “all offices” results for 2011-2014.

This paper sets out the results of two separate pieces of analysis:

  • indicative graduations of the 2011-2014 data, including by product; and
  • multivariate analysis of the experience using Generalised Linear Models.

Both analyses are intended to help us consider whether it is appropriate to produce new graduated mortality tables for pension annuities in payment and, if so:

  • What factors we should include in the tables, in addition to age and gender; and
  • What issues we may encounter in the data, and how we should resolve such issues.

We do not intend issuing new tables based on the dataset used for these analyses; instead we will use a more recent period once we have that dataset. Undertaking these analyses is intended to facilitate speedier production of new tables and making them available in this paper gives Subscribers an opportunity to comment on our preliminary thinking. We have included a number of specific questions at the end of the paper and would be very pleased to receive comments on these; comments can be sent to annuities@cmilimited.co.uk preferably by 31 December 2018, to enable us to take account of these views in producing draft tables.

Note: the paper and accompanying spreadsheet are available to Authorised Users only.

An Excel spreadsheet of the indicative rates is released alongside this paper.