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CMI Working Paper 161

Working Paper 161: “All offices” experience of pension annuities in payment in 2020 and indicative analysis of experience to mid-2021.

Working Paper 161 was published in March 2022. The paper describes the experience of pension annuities in payment in 2020 and the first half of 2021, with the paper also including comparisons to experience in 2016-2019. Results and values underlying charts are available in accompanying spreadsheets.

The analyses show that:

  • For males, 2020 experience is between 10% and 15% higher than the projected "16" Series pension annuities in payment "all products" tables in the age range 60 to 90, but with a slight downward shape as age increases. 
  • For females, the shape is similar to that for males but the experience is between 5% and 10% higher than the projected "16" Series pension annuities in payment "all products" tables. 
  • Mortality experience, when expressed as Standardised Mortality Rates (SMRs) and compared to 2019 levels is substantially higher in April 2020, slightly higher than 2019 in May and returns to pre-pandemic levels from June to October 2020. It then starts to increase again leading into a second peak in January 2021. After the second peak, SMRs again fall quickly and by June 2021 they are a little lower than 2019 levels.

The accompanying results are available in two forms:

The summary results spreadsheets provide a high-level overview of the results but do not allow users to choose an alternative base table. Users wishing to see more granular data, and to alter the comparison basis, should refer to the datasheets.

We have also published a spreadsheet that includes the values used in the charts in the working paper.

Note: this paper and the accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.

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