CMI Working Paper 198

Working Paper 198 was published in May 2025. The paper describes the experience of pension annuities in payment in 2023, including some comparisons to experience in 2022 and results by calendar year are also considered for 2015 to 2023. Values underlying charts are available as an accompanying output.

The analysis shows that:

• For males, experience in 2023 is lighter than the projected “16” Series tables overall, on both a lives-weighted basis and on an amounts-weighted basis. On a lives-weighted basis, we see a downward shape by age band (experience is 8% heavier at age band 65-69 and falling to be 3% lighter than the projected “16” Series tables for age band 90-94).
• For females, experience in 2023 is also lighter than the projected “16” Series tables overall, on both a lives-weighted basis and on an amounts-weighted basis. Lives-weighted experience is 5% heavier at age band 70-74 and falling to be 3% lighter than the projected “16” Series tables for age band 90-94.
• Considering mortality experience over 2015 to 2023 relative to the “16” Series all-product tables without projection, we see that experience fell each year between 2015 and 2019 for both sexes, followed by a large increase in 2020 and more volatile experience in 2021 to 2023. Experience is lighter in 2023 than in 2022 for both sexes but still higher than pre-pandemic levels.

A spreadsheet that includes the values underlying the charts in the working paper and data visualisations in pivot chart format accompanies this paper.

Note: this paper and the accompanying output are available to Authorised Users only.