Working Paper 162: “All offices” experience of term assurances in 2020

Working Paper 162 was published in May 2022. The working paper describes the experience of mortality, accelerated critical illness and stand-alone critical illness under term assurances in 2020; the results are available in accompanying spreadsheets.

The paper also describes experience by month in 2020, compared to 2019, to illustrate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on experience.

The analyses show:

  • Mortality experience in 2020 is around 4% higher than is expected by the “16” Series term mortality tables. However, the experience varies by both gender and smoker status. Experience is generally heavier for males compared to females and generally heavier for non-smokers compared to smokers.
  • Accelerated critical illness experience in 2020 is around 14% lighter than is expected by the “16” Series term accelerated critical illness tables. The shape by age of experience is generally similar to that provided by the tables, albeit at a lower level.
  • Mortality experience is heavier during periods coinciding with the first and second waves of deaths during the pandemic, in the second and fourth quarters of 2020. Again, the impact varies by gender and smoker status. There is a pronounced spike in male non-smoker experience in April 2020, however, the corresponding increase in experience in April 2020 for other subsets is less marked. All subsets appear to exhibit heavier experience in the fourth quarter of 2020.
  • Accelerated critical illness experience is lighter than expected in all months of 2020. Male and female non-smoker experience decreased substantially during the second quarter of 2020, before returning to 2019 levels of experience later in the year. The experience of the smoker datasets in more erratic but similar patterns are evident.

There are summary spreadsheets (linked below) for each benefit type – Mortality (DB), Accelerated Critical Illness (ACI) and Standalone Critical Illness (SCI) – and datasheets containing more granular data are available on request. Please refer to the paper for more details.

The six sets of Summary results released alongside this paper are:

To obtain the Datasheets, please email

We have also published a spreadsheet that includes the values used in the charts in the working paper.

Note: this paper and the spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.

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