Working Paper 182: Considerations for term assurances post-pandemic

Working Paper 182 was published in January 2024. It describes further analysis into the results for mortality and accelerated critical illness term assurances sold on standard rates, with specific focus on the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on experience. 

The paper compares experience of the 2020 and 2021 datasets, as presented in Working Paper 176, with updated experience for 2017 – 2019, which have been chosen to represent “pre-pandemic experience”. Where possible, data for 2017 – 2019 is combined to avoid undue influence of a single calendar year

The following analyses are considered:

  • The impact of the pandemic on term assurance experience and the general population, including by Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD).
  • The mix of death and terminal illness claims on mortality term assurances.
  • Delays to claims settlement.
  • Experience by a variety of risk factors using both a traditional one-way analysis of Actual / Expected claims and a Generalised Linear Modelling (GLM) analysis

We also include thoughts on the considerations that insurers may have to make when setting their bases for term assurance products in the post-pandemic period.  Consideration is given to what years to include and how base assumptions and trends may interact.  We also set out thoughts on the future graduation of term assurance tables and invite comments from subscribers on this topic.

We have also published a spreadsheet that includes the values used in the charts in the working paper

Note: this paper and the spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.

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