You are here

My account » CMI Working Paper 191
Working Paper 191: Experience of term assurances in 2022

 

Working Paper 191 was published in June 2024. The paper describes the experience of mortality and accelerated critical illness (ACI) term assurances in 2022. Results are compared with updated 2021 and 2020 experience, as well as the combined 2016-2019 period. 

For the first in an annual term assurance experience report, analysis is included by claim type (for mortality benefits), cause of claim (for ACI benefits), nation-specific IMD decile and UK region.

The paper also includes an analysis of monthly experience during 2019 to 2022.

The analyses show:

  • The mortality experience in 2022 is around 2% lighter than is expected by the T16 tables (with no allowance for trends), compared with 2% and 5% heavier in the updated 2020 and 2021 data. Experience is broadly similar by both gender and smoker status in 2022, however the 2020 and 2021 results show non-smoker experience was generally heavier than smoker experience (noting the use of smoker-specific comparator tables). 
  • The ACI experience is close to that expected by the AC16 tables in 2021 and 2022 (2% and 1% lower, respectively) except for female smokers in 2021 and male smokers in 2022, which have substantially lighter experience. The 2020 experience is considerably lighter than the expected basis.
  • Mortality experience by month is very similar to the expected basis between mid-2021 and early 2022. This coincides with a period of elevated COVID-19 deaths in the general population. Experience thereafter in 2022 falls but rises towards the end of the year. Again, this is consistent with a period of higher deaths in the general population. This feature appears to arise from a combination of heavier experience across all gender/smoker subsets, although we note experience in these months is subject to greater uncertainty.
  • Accelerated critical illness experience by month is more erratic in 2021 compared with other years but relatively stable around 100% of the expected basis in 2022. These features are evident in both non-smoker subsets but the experience of the smoker subsets is more erratic.

There are summary results spreadsheets for each benefit type – mortality (DB) and accelerated critical illness (ACI) – covering 2020 to 2022:

We have also published a spreadsheet that includes the values used in the charts  in the working paper and a Tableau Workbook, allowing interactive exploration of selected charts in the working paper. Note that the Tableau Workbook requires access to Tableau Reader; this is free to download at: https://www.tableau.com/products/reader.

Note: this paper and the spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.

Events calendar

No results found.