CMI Working Paper 199

Working Paper 199 was published in May 2025. The working paper describes the experience of mortality, accelerated critical illness and stand-alone critical illness under term assurances in Ireland over the period 2015 to 2021. This paper was produced by the Society of Actuaries in Ireland Demography Committee in collaboration with the CMI

At a high-level, the analyses show:

• The mortality experience from 2016-2019 and in 2021 is approximately 1% and 2% heavier respectively than expected by the T16 tables. In contrast, experience in 2020 is approximately 4% lower than expected. When analysed by gender and smoker status a similar pattern can be seen with the 2021 experience generally consistent with the pre-pandemic period (2016-2019) while the 2020 experience is generally lighter than other periods.
• The accelerated critical illness experience is around 7% heavier than is expected by the AC16 tables in 2015-2019 and 2021, but 2020 experience was around 6% lighter than expected.
• The stand-alone critical illness experience is heavier than expected by the AC16 tables in 2015-2019 but both 2020 and 2021 experience is close to expected.

We have also published a spreadsheet that includes the values used in the charts in the working paper..

Note: this paper and the spreadsheet are available to Authorised Users only.