Working Paper 157: Plans for CMI_2021

Working Paper 157 sets out our intentions for the next version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2021.

We expect to release CMI_2021 in March 2022. We considered whether to delay this because of the release of results of the 2021 England & Wales census over the course of 2022, but decided not to.

We intend to calibrate CMI_2021 to data for 1981-2021, with the Core version of CMI_2021 using 0% weights for 2020 and 2021 data and 100% weights for other years. This is consistent with the approach for CMI_2020.

Users of the Model will be able to vary the weights for each year of calibration data in CMI_2021, and there will be separate Extended parameters for the weights for 2020 and 2021 data.

Note: the working paper is available to Authorised Users  only.


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