CMI Working Paper 194 was published in October 2024. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of the SAPS dataset by a range of different factors including pension amount, Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) decile, region, and industry, as well as by combinations of these factors.
This paper analyses the same dataset as Working Paper 190. We utilise an “Actual / Expected” (A/E) analysis by comparing the mortality experience over the investigation period with the S4 Series tables projected with the Core version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2023, as well as a “Generalised Linear Modelling” (GLM) analysis.
When considering each factor in isolation, we observe that:
- Mortality experience becomes lighter as pension amount band increases for most groups. This trend is clearest for male pensioners, and least clear for female pensioners.
- For all pensioner types, mortality experience clearly becomes lighter as IMD decile increases (i.e. the deprivation level decreases).
- Mortality experience varies by industry, typically being lightest for the Government/Civil Service and the Financials industries, and by region, typically being heaviest in Scotland, and lightest in the South East and South West.
When considering factors in combination, or the results of a GLM analysis, we observe more nuanced patterns.
The SAPS Committee hosted a webinar on 28 October 2024 to discuss the results of this paper. The webinar was presented by Susan Hanlon (Chair of the SAPS Committee), David Barnard, and Jenny Bullen, and a recording of the webinar can be found on the CMI webinars page.
Summary files of the data
Files used in the analysis are available below. Please note that these files have been made available on the understanding that:
- although the CMI has made reasonable attempts to validate the data, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed and the CMI accepts no liability for its use; and
- any published comment or analysis should acknowledge the CMI as the source of the data.
We have released two outputs alongside this paper. These are:
- A spreadsheet that includes the data for the charts in the report: “CMI WP194 Chart values v01 2024-10-08.xlsx”.
- An Interactive Data Visualisation (IDV) in the form of a Tableau Workbook to allow users to interact with some of the key results. The data underlying the Tableau Workbook is available in the accompanying “chart values” spreadsheet. You will need to use software such as Tableau Reader (which is free to download) to view the Tableau Workbook
Working Paper 194 and its accompanying outputs are available to Authorised Users only.
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