CMI Working Paper 195

CMI Working Paper 195 was published in December 2024. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data received by October 2024, covering the period 2016 to 2023. It is the latest in a series of such papers that are updated annually.

The paper compares the mortality experience for this dataset against the unadjusted "S4" Series tables and the "S4" Series tables projected with the CMI Mortality Projections Model (CMI_2023). Results are provided for the various pensioner categories, by calendar year, and split into pension amount bands and IMD groups.

The analysis shows that:

• Overall, on both a lives-weighted and amounts-weighted basis, the mortality rates experienced by pensioners are very close to the unadjusted S4 Series tables, but the mortality rates experienced by dependants are slightly lighter than the unadjusted S4 Series tables. The dataset underlying this paper includes data for 2020 to 2023, whereas the S4 tables do not.
• Mortality tended to become lighter over the period to 2019 but was heavier in 2020, before becoming lighter over the period to 2023. The improvement in experience from 2020 to 2023 is clearest for male pensioners and least clear for female pensioners.
• Mortality experience of the “IMD dataset” continues to be heavier than the experience of the “total dataset”.
• Mortality shows sharp peaks in April 2020 and January 2021, corresponding broadly to the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.  However, the increase in mortality between 2019 and 2020 appears to be lower for the SAPS dataset than in the general population.

Summary files of the data

Files used in the analysis are available below. Please note that these files have been made available on the understanding that:

• although the CMI has made reasonable attempts to validate the data, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed and the CMI accepts no liability for its use; and
• any published comment or analysis should acknowledge the CMI as the source of the data.

There are two spreadsheets that accompany this paper:

• A spreadsheet that includes the data for the charts in the report: “CMI WP195 Chart values v01 2024-12-12.xlsx”.
• A spreadsheet that includes exposed to risk and death data by individual age and year for pensioners and dependants: “CMI WP195 Dataset v01 2024-12-12.xlsx

Working Paper 195 and its accompanying outputs are available to Authorised Users only.