CMI Working Paper 209

CMI Working Paper 209 was published in January 2026. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data received by September 2025, covering the period 2017 to 2024. It is the latest in a series of such papers that are updated annually.

The paper compares the mortality experience for this dataset against the unprojected "S4" Series tables and the "S4" Series tables projected with the CMI Mortality Projections Model (CMI_2024). Results are provided for the various pensioner categories, by calendar year, and split into pension amount bands and IMD groups.

The analysis shows that:

• Overall, on both a lives-weighted and amounts-weighted basis, the mortality rates experienced by pensioners and dependants are very close to the unprojected S4 Series tables. The dataset underlying this paper includes data for 2020 to 2024, whereas the S4 tables do not.
• Mortality tended to become lighter over the period to 2019 but was heavier in 2020, before becoming lighter over the period to 2024. The improvement in experience from 2020 to 2024 is clearest for male pensioners and least clear for female pensioners.
• Mortality experience of the “IMD dataset” continues to be heavier than the experience of the “total dataset”.
• The increase in mortality between 2019 and 2020, and between 2019 and 2021, appears to be lower for the SAPS dataset than in the general population.

Summary files of the data

Files used in the analysis are available below. Please note that these files have been made available on the understanding that:

• although the CMI has made reasonable attempts to validate the data, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed and the CMI accepts no liability for its use; and
• any published comment or analysis should acknowledge the CMI as the source of the data.

There are two spreadsheets that accompany this paper:

• A spreadsheet that includes the data for the charts in the report: “CMI WP209 Chart values v01 2026-01-29.xlsx”. 
• A spreadsheet that includes exposed to risk and death data by individual age and year for pensioners and dependants: “CMI WP209 Dataset v01 2026-01-29.xlsx”.
   

Working Paper 209 is available to Authorised Users only.