CMI cautions that fall in excess weekly deaths exaggerated by timing of VE Day

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing weekly UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. This week’s update shows the position as at week 19 of 2020 (2 May to 8 May) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 19 May 2020.

The key points of this update are:

• There were 1.4 times as many deaths registered in week 19 of 2020 than if death rates had been the same as week 19 of 2019. The ratio was 1.6 in week 18 and 2.2 in week 17.
• There may have been around 61,000 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 18 May 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019.
• Very few deaths were recorded on the VE Day anniversary bank holiday, Friday 8 May. The unrecorded deaths are likely to be seen in the week 20 figures.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee said: “The latest figures released by the ONS show a significant decline in ‘excess’ weekly deaths, although the fall in week 19 has been exaggerated by the timing of the VE Day bank holiday. Most excess deaths not reported in week 19 will be registered in week 20.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~      

Contact
Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk                                                                                           

Notes to Editors:

1. The latest ONS data for ‘Deaths registered weekly in England & Wales’ is for week 19, ending on Friday 8 May. If the Friday is a public holiday then deaths cannot typically be registered until the following week. If a public holiday falls on a Monday, then deaths can be registered later in that week. During the coronavirus pandemic, some register offices were open over the Easter public holidays, but daily registrations suggest that few were open on the VE Day anniversary bank holiday

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial.  As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest. 

Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London.

Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society.

The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including enterprise risk management, finance and investment, general insurance, health and care, life assurance, mortality, and pensions.