26 January 2021
During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. The latest update covers week 2 of 2021 (9 to 15 January) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 26 January 2021.
The key points of this update are:
- The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 2 of 2021 was 5,000 higher than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 2 of 2019; equivalent to 39% more deaths than expected.
- There have been around 85,200 more deaths than expected in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 15 January 2021. Of these, 24,400 have occurred in the second wave.
- The number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 7,245 in week 2 of 2021, compared to 6,057 in week 1 of 2020.
Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee said: “This week’s data makes it clear that, following uneven death registrations over the holiday period, excess weekly deaths continue to increase, with 5,000 in week 2 and over 24,000 so far in the second wave.”
All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.
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Notes to editors
1. We define “excess” deaths as the difference between actual deaths in a week, and those that we would have expected if mortality rates had been the same as in the corresponding week of 2019.
2. The ONS data that we use relates to registered deaths. The timing of bank holidays led to materially higher or lower numbers of death registrations in recent weeks than in the absence of bank holidays, but the impact of bank holidays on results for week 2 of 2021 is likely to be small.
3. For the purposes of the mortality monitor, the CMI treats the pandemic as being deaths registered from week 10 onwards (i.e. from 29 February 2020) and the second wave as being registrations from week 38 onwards (i.e. from 12 September 2020).
4. The CMI intends to publish its next mortality monitor for week 3 of 2021 on Tuesday 2 February 2021.
Contact
Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk
About the Continuous Mortality Investigation
Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.
The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.
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The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.
Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial. As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest.
Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.
Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London.
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