During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. The latest update covers week 7 of 2021 (13 February to 19 February) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 2 March 2021.

The key points of this update are:     

  • The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 7 of 2021 was 1,595 higher than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 7 of 2019; equivalent to 13% more deaths than expected. The corresponding figures for recent weeks were 47% more deaths than expected in week 5, and 27% more in week 6.
     
  • There have been around 109,900 more deaths than expected in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 19 February 2021. Of these, 49,200 have occurred in the second wave.
     
  • The number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 4,079 in week 7 of 2021, compared to 5,691 in week 6 of 2021.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said:

“The latest data shows that deaths have continued to fall, from around 50% more than expected at the start of this year to 13% more than expected in week 7.

“Excess deaths have fallen fastest for the oldest age group. This is consistent with the impact that we would expect to see from the coronavirus vaccination programme, as older age groups received their vaccine earlier.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Notes to editors

  1. We define “excess” deaths as the difference between actual deaths in a week, and those that we would have expected if mortality rates had been the same as in the corresponding week of 2019.
     
  2. For the purposes of the mortality monitor, the CMI treats the pandemic as being deaths registered from week 10 onwards (i.e. from 29 February 2020) and the second wave as being registrations from week 38 onwards (i.e. from 12 September 2020).
     
  3. The CMI intends to publish its next mortality monitor for week 8 of 2021 on Tuesday 9 March 2021. 

Contact
Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

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The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial.  As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest. 

Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London.

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The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including COVID-19 and its long term consequences, mortality, pensions, life and general insurance, health and care, finance and investment, climate change and sustainability, systems thinking, uncertainty and judgement, and risk management.

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