During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. The latest update covers week 49 of 2020 (28 November to 4 December) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 15 December 2020.

The key points of this update are:     

  • The number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate had risen from under 100 in week 37, to 3,040 in week 48. The week 49 figure is 2,835, the first fall during the second wave.
     
  • There were 12% more deaths registered in England & Wales in week 49 than if death rates had been the same as for week 49 of 2019. The corresponding figures were 12% in week 48 and 13% in weeks 46 and 47.
     
  • There have been around 69,500 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 4 December 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee said:

“The number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate has fallen for the first time since early September. However, excess deaths remain fairly stable at around 1,500 per week.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Notes to editors

  1. “Excess” deaths are the difference between actual deaths in 2020, and those that we would expect if mortality rates had been the same as in 2019.
  2. For the purposes of the mortality monitor, the CMI treats the first wave of the pandemic as being week 10 onwards (i.e. from 29 February 2020) and the second wave as being week 38 onwards (i.e. from 12 September 2020).
  3. The CMI intends to publish its next mortality monitor for week 50 on 22 December 2020.

Contact
Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial.  As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest. 

Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London.

Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society.

The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including COVID-19 and its long term consequences, mortality, pensions, life and general insurance, health and care, finance and investment, climate change and sustainability, systems thinking, uncertainty and judgement, and risk management.

Contact Details

For all media queries please contact Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager

sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

+44 (0) 20 7632 2126

For out of hours, the Press Office can be contacted at: press.office@actuaries.org.uk. We aim to respond to all enquiries as quickly as possible.