During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. Today’s update covers week 30 of 2021 (24 to 30 July), based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 10 August 2021.

The key points of this update are:     

  • The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 30 of 2021 was 592 higher than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 30 of 2019; equivalent to 6% more deaths than expected.
  • There have been around 98,900 more deaths from all causes than expected in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 30 July 2021. Of these, 26,000 have occurred in 2021.
  • The number of deaths in England & Wales with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 404 in week 30 of 2021, compared to 327 in week 29 of 2021.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said:

“UK COVID-19 deaths have risen from under 100 in week 23 to over 400 in week 30. This has coincided with all-cause mortality in each of the past four weeks being higher than in the corresponding weeks of 2019, the last full year before the pandemic. However, the weakening of the link between cases and deaths as a result of the vaccination programme means that the increase in mortality has not been as high as in the first and second waves of the pandemic.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Notes to editors

  1. We define “excess” deaths as the difference between actual deaths in a week, and those that we would have expected if mortality rates had been the same as in the corresponding week of 2019. We use 2019 as the most recent “normal” year of mortality observed, as mortality in the first 12 weeks of 2019 and 2020 were similar.
     
  2. The total excess deaths figures shown above since the start of the pandemic (98,900) and the start of 2021 (26,000) have fallen from peaks of 111,200 and 38,200 respectively, at week 9 of 2021. This is due to there being fewer deaths than expected in most subsequent weeks.
     
  3. For the purposes of the mortality monitor, the CMI treats the pandemic as being deaths registered from week 10 of 2020 onwards (i.e. from 29 February 2020).
     
  4. The CMI publishes three types of mortality monitor:
    • A weekly “summary” pandemic monitor, without a press release. The next is planned for week 31 of 2021 on Tuesday 17 August 2021.
    • A more detailed pandemic monitor, with a press release, every four or five weeks. The next is planned for week 34 of 2021 on Tuesday 7 September 2021.
    • A quarterly monitor, in a format that pre-dates the pandemic. The next is planned for week 39 of 2021 on Tuesday 12 October 2021.

Contact
Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

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The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial.  As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest. 

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Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London.

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