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CMI notes sustained drop in excess deaths

CMI notes sustained drop in excess deaths

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing weekly UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. This week’s update shows the position as at week 22 of 2020 (23 May to 29 May) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 9 June 2020.

The key points of this update are:

  • There were 17% more deaths registered in week 22 of 2020 than if death rates had been the same as week 22 of 2019. The increase was 18% in week 21 and 40% in week 20.
  • There may have been around 65,000 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 8 June 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee said: “As anticipated the latest ONS data shows a continued gradual decline in ‘excess’ weekly deaths. During the earlier part of the pandemic there were many ‘excess’ deaths over and above those recorded as involving COVID-19. Last Friday’s ONS publication suggests that a large number of these ‘excess’ deaths were likely to have involved undiagnosed COVID-19 in the elderly.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.


Notes to editors

  1. “Excess” deaths are the difference between actual deaths in 2020, and those that we would expect if mortality rates had been the same as in 2019.
  2. The ONS report “Analysis of death registrations not involving coronavirus (COVID-19), England and Wales: 28 December 2019 to 1 May 2020”.


Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

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The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial.  As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest. 

Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London.

Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society.

The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including enterprise risk management, finance and investment, general insurance, health and care, life assurance, mortality, and pensions.

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+44 (0) 20 7632 2126

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