2 March 2020
The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has released its latest Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2019. Mortality rates in England & Wales were on average 3.8% lower in 2019 than in 2018. This is the largest annual fall in mortality rates since 2011. As a result, cohort life expectancies at age 65 are around one month higher than for CMI_2018, for both males and females, although they are still lower than in all earlier versions of the CMI Model.
Cobus Daneel, Chair, CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said:
“Mortality rates in 2019 were at the lowest level we have ever seen in England & Wales. It’s important to stress that mortality rates are volatile and, in isolation, the improvement seen in 2019 should not necessarily be interpreted as a return to the high level of improvements that we’ve seen in previous decades.
“Not everyone experiences the same level of mortality improvements. In recent years, people living in less deprived areas of England and Wales have experienced higher mortality improvements than those in more deprived areas. Whilst our projections model uses data for the general population, it provides a flexible framework that can be adjusted to suit our users’ needs. For example, some actuaries may increase initial mortality improvement rates if they expect that pension scheme members or insurance company policyholders, who tend to be from less deprived areas on average, will experience higher mortality improvements than the general population in the short to medium term.”
For more information on The Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2019, please see the FAQs.
~ENDS~
Contact
Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk
Notes to Editor
- CMI Mortality Projections Model CMI_2019 - Frequently asked questions. March 2020.
- Cohort life expectancy allows for assumed future changes in mortality rates. As future changes are unknown, it is a subjective measure. It is typically used by actuaries who need to use realistic assumptions about the lifespan of pension scheme members or insurance company policyholders. In contrast, period life expectancy only allows for changes in mortality rates to date and makes no allowance for future changes. It is an objective measure that is often reported by the Office for National Statistics.
- The CMI Mortality Projections Model (the “CMI Model”) was introduced in 2009 to replace previous projections and has been updated on a broadly annual basis since then. It is based on mortality data for the population of England & Wales, published by the Office for National Statistics.
- The CMI Model is typically used by UK pension schemes and insurance companies which need to make assumptions about future mortality rates. The Model does not provide an assumption around long-term mortality improvements, requiring users to make their own assessment.
- Life expectancy for different groups, such as particular pension schemes and groups of policyholders, can vary considerably, and the CMI encourages users of the CMI Model to make appropriate assumptions for the purpose that it is being used for.
About the Continuous Mortality Investigation
Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.
The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.
About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.
Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial. As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest.
Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long-term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They may also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.
Members of the IFoA can have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They can also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s.
Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society.
The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial- related issues, including enterprise risk management, finance and investment, general insurance, health and care, life assurance, mortality, and pensions.