4 August 2020
CMI notes deaths below 2019 levels for the sixth successive week
During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. This week’s update shows the position as at week 30 of 2020 (18 to 24 July) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 4 August 2020.
The key points of this update are:
- There were 4% fewer deaths registered in week 30 of 2020 than if death rates had been the same as week 30 of 2019. The equivalent figure for week 29 was also 4% fewer.
- There have been around 62,100 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 24 July 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019. This is a decrease of around 2,500 from the peak at 12 June 2020.
Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee said: “For the sixth week running, we see fewer deaths than we might expect at this time of year. However, the numbers involved are modest and the aggregate excess deaths figure remains well above 60,000.”
“Excess” deaths are the difference between actual deaths in 2020, and those that we would expect if mortality rates had been the same as in 2019.
The cumulative number of excess deaths as at 4 August is lower than the number as at 12 June because there have been fewer deaths than expected during the past six weeks of data; i.e. excess deaths have been negative in those weeks.
We have modified the method that we use to calculate UK excess deaths. We now use data from National Records Scotland (NRS) and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) as well as the Office for National Statistics (ONS), rather than scaling the England & Wales excess death figure using data from Public Health England (PHE) and the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC). The new method increases the UK estimate by about 1,000.
We intend to publish the next mortality monitor on August 18 (for week 32).
All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.