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CMI notes a return of excess deaths in recent weeks

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. Today’s update covers week 30 of 2021 (24 to 30 July), based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 10 August 2021.

The key points of this update are:     

  • The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 30 of 2021 was 592 higher than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 30 of 2019; equivalent to 6% more deaths than expected.
  • There have been around 98,900 more deaths from all causes than expected in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 30 July 2021. Of these, 26,000 have occurred in 2021.
  • The number of deaths in England & Wales with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 404 in week 30 of 2021, compared to 327 in week 29 of 2021.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “UK COVID-19 deaths have risen from under 100 in week 23 to over 400 in week 30. This has coincided with all-cause mortality in each of the past four weeks being higher than in the corresponding weeks of 2019, the last full year before the pandemic. However, the weakening of the link between cases and deaths as a result of the vaccination programme means that the increase in mortality has not been as high as in the first and second waves of the pandemic.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.