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CMI observes deaths dip below 2019 levels for the first time since March

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. This week’s update shows the position as at week 25 of 2020 (13 to 19 June) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 30 June 2020.

The key points of this update are:

  • There were 3% fewer deaths registered in week 25 of 2020 than if death rates had been the same as week 25 of 2019.
  • This is the first week since March that mortality in 2020 has been lower than in 2019.
  • There have been around 63,200 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 19 June 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019.
  • After next week’s publication the CMI intends to reduce the frequency of monitoring reports provided that ‘excess’ deaths remain within a typical range. The next mortality monitors are due to be published on July 7 (for week 26) and July 21 (for week 28).

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee said:

"The latest ONS data shows around 250 fewer deaths than we might expect at this time of year. This is the first time since March that excess deaths have turned negative.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

“Excess” deaths are the difference between actual deaths in 2020, and those that we would expect if mortality rates had been the same as in 2019.