CMI says VE Day timing masks downward trend in excess weekly deaths

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing weekly UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. This week’s update shows the position as at week 20 of 2020 (9 May to 15 May) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 26 May 2020.

The key points of this update are:

• There were 40% more deaths registered in week 20 of 2020 than if death rates had been the same as week 20 of 2019. The increase was 38% in week 19 and 58% in week 18.
• There may have been around 64,000 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 25 May 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019.
• Very few deaths were recorded on the VE Day anniversary bank holiday, Friday 8 May. Today’s figures include a backlog of deaths that were not recorded at the end of week 19.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee said: “The latest ONS data shows an increase in ‘excess’ weekly deaths. This is due to the timing of the VE Day anniversary bank holiday which masks the downward trend we’ve seen since week 16.”

The ONS releases data for weeks ending on a Friday. If the Friday is a public holiday then deaths cannot typically be registered until the following week. During the coronavirus pandemic, some register offices were open over the Easter public holidays, but daily registrations suggest that few were open on VE Day anniversary bank holiday, Friday 8 May, in week 19.

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.