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CMI sees fourth successive week of increasing excess deaths

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. The latest update covers week 45 of 2020 (31 October to 6 November) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 17 November 2020.

The key points of this update are:

  • The number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate has continued to increase in recent weeks, from under 100 in week 37, to 1,937 in week 45.
  • As a result, all-cause mortality is now higher than levels observed in 2019.
  • There were 9% more deaths registered in England & Wales in week 45 than if death rates had been the same as for week 45 of 2019. The corresponding increase in week 44 was 6%.
  • There have been around 63,200 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 6 November 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “Excess deaths are increasing week-by-week, but the rate of increase is more gradual than during the first wave.”

“Excess” deaths are the difference between actual deaths in 2020, and those that we would expect if mortality rates had been the same as in 2019.

The CMI intends to publish its next mortality monitor for week 46 on 24 November 2020. All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.