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Population Health Management

This Working Party had been established to promote the development of population health management within the actuarial profession and the health sector.

Background to the working party:

The Health and Care Research Sub-committee has launched a member-led working party to support the development of population health management.  The NHS is tackling the challenge of rising healthcare demand and constrained funding by implementing new models of care to develop integrated local healthcare systems for a defined population.  To underpin delivery of the improved outcomes, better care and value for money that are being sought, it is essential that healthcare systems develop a comprehensive understanding of the health characteristics of their population – for example, current patterns of care demand, forecasting future demand, and predicting the effects of interventions.  The actuarial skillset has much to offer in building and deploying such demographic, risk modelling and analytical capability, but there is currently limited awareness of this across the NHS.

Population Health Management considers the distribution of health outcomes within a population and how to impact these outcomes in the most optimal way for the group as a whole.  It is a wide field and so the working party will initially focus on the specific topic of impactability modelling.  The predictive risk stratification and segmentation models typically utilised in population health approaches have focused on identifying population groups that have a high risk of experiencing an adverse event, such as an unplanned hospital admission, or have a high cost profile.  

However, the success of risk stratification at the whole-population level depends not just on identifying those most at risk of an adverse event, but rather in identifying those who are most at risk and most likely to respond positively to a given intervention – i.e. to be ‘impactable’.  The combination of risk stratification, impactability modelling and actuarial variability analysis can not only help to target the most promising patients for medical management, but also support the improvement of resource allocation across a local health economy.

    Key objectives:

    The research and output of the working party will be done in phases, with the scope of each phase to be defined and agreed once the working party is established.  Initially, it is envisaged that a range of topics related to impactability will be explored, including:

    • definition of impactability modelling – (e.g. analysis which quantifies the extent to which a defined population cohort is predicted to respond to a given healthcare intervention under specified circumstances)
    • exploring an understanding of different approaches to measuring and modelling impactability including the skills, tools and techniques needed to achieve each approach
    • the advantages and disadvantages of various potential approaches (both data driven and those based on empirical evidence)
    • consideration of the interactions between impactability and population risk management
    • issues of public perception, inequality and ethics.

    Key ouputs:

    • A presentaton at the Life Conference or Protection, Health and Care Conference or other relevant health conferences
    • A research paper due in 2019
    • An article in The Actuary 
    • A sessional meeting

    Chair, Alpesh Shah

    • Membership: 14
    • Established: 2018

    Related documents

    Contact Details

    If you want more information about this research working party please contact the Communities Team.

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    Events calendar

    • IFoA & PRI Webinar: TCFD – leaders and challenges

      Online webinar
      2 September 2019

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      In collaboration with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the Principles of Responsible Investment is delighted to host this webinar discussing the response to the TCFD’s recommendations two years on from their publication. The webinar will feature new analysis of the 591 investors representing $45 trillion who responded to PRI’s 2019 climate indicators, insights from the past Chair of the IFoA’s Resource and Environment Board as well as an investor case study of implementation in practice from Aviva. 

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      Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
      3 September 2019

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      5 September 2019

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      China Life Insurance, Beijing •  China Life Shanghai Office • China Life Shenzhen Office  
      6 September 2019

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      Friday, 6 September, Beijing Local Time (CST) 14.00-16.30; British Summer Time (BST) 07.00-9.30

      The IFoA Beijing Office and China Life are pleased to be co-hosting a Professional Skills Training (PST) session in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen on Friday, 6 September. Wen Li (FIA), the IFoA Lead Representative in China and East Asia, will lead the PST presentation and discussion on ‘Getting it right!’.

      The main venue will be in Beijing. Members in Shanghai and Shenzhen can join the interaction with Beijing via video conference at China Life’s regional venues. (see full details below)

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      Willis Towers Watson 2 Lochrin Square, 96 Fountainbridge, Edinburgh EH3 9QA
      23 September 2019

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      EICC, The Exchange, 150 Morrison St, Edinburgh EH3 8EE
      24-26 September 2019
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      Staple Inn Hall High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
      2 October 2019

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      This workshop, now in its sixth year, is aimed at senior actuaries working in life insurance - predominantly Chief Actuaries, but also Reviewing Actuaries and others working in risk and financial reporting. It will provide seven hours of relevant CPD.

    • The Future of the Actuarial Profession

      Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
      3 October 2019

      Fully booked.


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    • RSS/IFoA Data Science Ethics: the role of practitioners

      Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol St, London EC1Y 8LX
      7 October 2019

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      Join us for the launch of this new guidance, with a high-level panel discussion which will explore the role of data science practitioners and professional bodies in data ethics. 

    • KSS Event – GAD: the 100 year life (Edinburgh)

      KPMG  Saltire Court 20 Castle Terrace Edinburgh EH1 2EG
      22 October 2019

      Spaces available

      The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) marks its centenary this year. George Russell, formerly Deputy Government Actuary, who currently heads up GAD’s Edinburgh office, leading on GAD support to the devolved administrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland, will outline GAD’s development over that period and its range of work today. Having just “celebrated” his 25th anniversary of joining GAD, George will also reflect on some of the challenges and opportunities of advising at the interface of the actuarial and the political worlds.

    • KSS event – GAD: the 100 year life (Glasgow)

      Barnett Waddingham 163 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2JJ
      24 October 2019

      Spaces available

      The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) marks its centenary this year. George Russell, formerly Deputy Government Actuary, who currently heads up GAD’s Edinburgh office, leading on GAD support to the devolved administrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland, will outline GAD’s development over that period and its range of work today. Having just “celebrated” his 25th anniversary of joining GAD, George will also reflect on some of the challenges and opportunities of advising at the interface of the actuarial and the political worlds.

    • Sessional Meeting - Autonomous Vehicles and impacts on the wider insurance industry

      Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ         
      28 October 2019

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      The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries is running a sessional meeting on autonomous vehicles on 28th October.  The session will showcase the work of the IFoA “Autonomous Vehicles” working party alongside a number of expert external presenters. 

    • ARC Event: Beyond Proportional Hazards

      Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
      30 October 2019

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      ARC Event: Beyond Proportional Hazards: Statistical methods for assessment of the impact of medical advances and health interventions on longevity and population projections.

      This workshop is being delivered by the Actuarial Research Centre’s (ARC) ‘Big Health and Actuarial Data’ Research Programme.

    • Hot Topics in Health and Care: Networking and Drinks

      Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, London WC1V 6DR
      4 November 2019

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    • The challenges for AI in Autonomous driving – Professor Andrew Blake

      Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh, 11 Queen Street, Edinburgh, EH2 1JQ
      11 November 2019

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      In conjunction with the Scottish Board and supporting the IFoA’s focus on data science.

      The IFoA’s Scottish Board have arranged for UK pioneer in Computer Vision and Machine Intelligence, Professor Andrew Blake to speak to delegates on the subject of AI in Autonomous driving. This lecture will focus on safety-critical operation and the computation of risk.  

    • Autumn Pension Seminar

      Grand Connaught Rooms, 61-65 Great Queen St, Holborn, London WC2B 5DA
      13 November 2019

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      • KSS event: How is Scotland’s population changing and what are the implications?

        Barnett Waddingham, 163 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2JJ
        14 November 2019

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        The National Records of Scotland (NRS) collects, preserves and produces information about Scotland's people and history to inform current and future generations - work that underpins the fabric of Scottish society and tells the story of our nation. This KSS talk will explore the following and other areas impacting Scotland’s changing population, and assess the potential implications of the changes:

        • population statistics
        • life expectancy
        • changes in age structure
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      • Life Conference 2019

        The Convention Centre Dublin, Spencer Dock, North Wall Quay, Dublin 1
        20-22 November 2019
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        The Life Conference is the premier event for professionals interested in life insurance.  Offering a wide range of workshops and plenary sessions it’s the perfect opportunity to discover what’s hot and current in life insurance ensuring you get up to date on the latest thinking and innovation whilst meeting and exchanging ideas with a broad range of professionals.

      • Autumn Lecture 2019, London - Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP

        Lincoln's Inn The Treasury Office, London WC2A 3TL
        2 December 2019

        Fully booked.

        The IFoA is pleased to announce that this year’s Autumn Lecture will feature the Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP as its guest speaker.  Nicky has previously served as Financial Secretary to the Treasury and Minister for Women. She now chairs the Treasury Select Committee whose remit is to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of HM Treasury, along with all of its agencies and associated bodies.

      • Autumn Lecture 2019: Live Streaming

        2 December 2019

        Spaces available

        Watch the live stream of this year's Autumn Lecture with guest speaker Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP. 

      • Behavioural Finance Research Launch- 14 January 2020

        Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London WC1V 6DR
        14 January 2020

        Spaces available

        We are delighted to announce the launch of the findings from our ARC funded Behavioural Finance research with a special evening event at Staple Inn on Tuesday14th January 2020. Entitled Behavioural Aspects of Institutional Investment Decision-Making, this research programme is being delivered by City, University of London, Leeds University Business School and Ipsos.

      • Sessional: Impact of E-cigarettes Working Party

        Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ
        24 February 2020

        Spaces available

        This sessional meeting will be of direct interest to actuaries and others working in the in the Health and Care, Life or Pensions sectors or indeed an actuaries with an interest in morbidity or mortality.