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Population Health Management

This Working Party had been established to promote the development of population health management within the actuarial profession and the health sector.

Background to the working party:

The Health and Care Research Sub-committee has launched a member-led working party to support the development of population health management.  The NHS is tackling the challenge of rising healthcare demand and constrained funding by implementing new models of care to develop integrated local healthcare systems for a defined population.  To underpin delivery of the improved outcomes, better care and value for money that are being sought, it is essential that healthcare systems develop a comprehensive understanding of the health characteristics of their population – for example, current patterns of care demand, forecasting future demand, and predicting the effects of interventions.  The actuarial skillset has much to offer in building and deploying such demographic, risk modelling and analytical capability, but there is currently limited awareness of this across the NHS.

Population Health Management considers the distribution of health outcomes within a population and how to impact these outcomes in the most optimal way for the group as a whole.  It is a wide field and so the working party will initially focus on the specific topic of impactability modelling.  The predictive risk stratification and segmentation models typically utilised in population health approaches have focused on identifying population groups that have a high risk of experiencing an adverse event, such as an unplanned hospital admission, or have a high cost profile.  

However, the success of risk stratification at the whole-population level depends not just on identifying those most at risk of an adverse event, but rather in identifying those who are most at risk and most likely to respond positively to a given intervention – i.e. to be ‘impactable’.  The combination of risk stratification, impactability modelling and actuarial variability analysis can not only help to target the most promising patients for medical management, but also support the improvement of resource allocation across a local health economy.

    Key objectives:

    The research and output of the working party will be done in phases, with the scope of each phase to be defined and agreed once the working party is established.  Initially, it is envisaged that a range of topics related to impactability will be explored, including:

    • definition of impactability modelling – (e.g. analysis which quantifies the extent to which a defined population cohort is predicted to respond to a given healthcare intervention under specified circumstances)
    • exploring an understanding of different approaches to measuring and modelling impactability including the skills, tools and techniques needed to achieve each approach
    • the advantages and disadvantages of various potential approaches (both data driven and those based on empirical evidence)
    • consideration of the interactions between impactability and population risk management
    • issues of public perception, inequality and ethics.

    Key ouputs:

    • A presentaton at the Life Conference or Protection, Health and Care Conference or other relevant health conferences
    • A research paper due in 2019
    • An article in The Actuary 
    • A sessional meeting

    Chair, Alpesh Shah

    • Membership: 14
    • Established: 2018

    Related documents

    Contact Details

    If you want more information about this research working party please contact the Communities Team.

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    Events calendar

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      Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7Q
      14 June 2019

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      Increasing global concern over the impact of climate change has recently led to public scrutiny over the adequacy of existing risk management practices by insurance firms and pension schemes in dealing with these challenges, that potentially impact both individual actuaries and the IFOA generally.


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      Bristol Marriott Hotel City Centre, 2 Lower Castle Street, Old Market, Bristol, BS1 3AD
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      19 June 2019

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      To book your place, please email 

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      Inmarsat, 99 City Road, London, EC1Y 1BJ
      19 June 2019

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      There will be an excellent and diverse line-up of speakers to provide a variety of perspectives and challenge covering technical and professional areas. 

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      Cass Business School, Executive Education Facilities 200 Aldersgate St, London EC1A 4HD
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    • IFoA/SAS Joint Professional Skills Training – Singapore

      Room 903, NTUC Centre, Level 9, One Marina Boulevard, Singapore 018989
      25 June 2019

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      The Hub  Castlehill Edinburgh EH1 2NE
      26 June 2019

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      Notice is hereby given that the ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING of the INSTITUTE AND FACULTY OF ACTUARIES will be held at The Hub, Edinburgh on Wednesday 26 June 2019 at 16.30 (Preceded by tea from 16.00) and followed by a PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS given by John Taylor.

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      Institute for Financial and Actuarial Mathematics Department of Mathematical  Sciences The University of Liverpool Mathematical Sciences Building Peach Street Liverpool, L69 7ZL
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      Menara AIA, Auditorium, 99 Jalan Ampang, 50450, Kuala Lumpur
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      The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and Actuarial Society of Malaysia (ASM) are organising a joint Professional Skills Training (PST) in Kuala Lumpur. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Life, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

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      Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
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      EICC, The Exchange, 150 Morrison St, Edinburgh EH3 8EE
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