Continuous Mortality Investigation news

Mortality projections

• Working paper 64 was issued in April 2013, consulting on the future development of the CMI Library of Mortality Projections and the CMI Mortality Projections Model. Responses were requested by 31 May 2013. Note: this paper is available to Authorised Users only. The Committee is currently considering the responses; in particular regarding convergence from initial raters of improvement to long-term rates. It is likely that any material changes will be incorporated into CMI_2014, to avoid any delay in releasing CMI_2013.
• Version 1.4 of the CMI Library of Mortality Projections has been published. This contains 10 additional projections, including projections using the P-spline age-cohort and Lee-Carter models applied to ONS data to 2011, and sample projections from the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2012. Note: this version of the Library is available to Authorised Users only.
• CMI Working paper 63 was published in February 2013. This paper accompanies the issue of the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2012 and illustrates the impact of incorporating revised population estimates for mid-2002 to mid-2010 and data for 2011. Issued alongside the paper are the revised and updated versions of the Model and the User Guide

Gender differentials and Unisex rates

• In June 2008, the CMI published bulletins for life assurance and annuities, critical illness insurance and income protection insurance that life insurers may opt to rely on to support differential pricing in response to the Sex Discrimination (Amendment of Legislation) Regulations 2008 and associated guidance. Updated differentials, using data for 2003-2006, were published in April 2009 for mortality, in February 2010 for critical illness, and in June 2010 for income protection.
• The CMI has produced a set of unisex rates that are intended to
  • Actuaries undertaking Transfer Value Analysis in accordance with COBS 19.1 of the FSA Sourcebook;
  • Actuaries preparing projections for Key Features Illustrations in accordance with COBS 13 Annex 2 of the FSA sourcebook; and
  • Actuaries producing Statutory Money Purchase Illustrations with an illustration date on or after 6 April 2013 in accordance with the FRC’s Actuarial Standard Technical Memorandum TM1.

Life office mortality

• In 2012, a special data collection exercise was launched, seeking mortality and critical illness data from life offices for the years 2007-2011. A more flexible approach to data collection and validation was adopted to make data submission as easy as possible and to bring CMI results production up-to-date. An ambitious timetable was set for this exercise and the Committee has been hugely encouraged by the responses it received. In particular, data has been received from a number of offices that have not regularly submitted data in recent years.
• At the end of September 2012, the volume of annuity data received was the most encouraging and the processing of this data was prioritised by the Committee. Further data has been received subsequently leading to some slippage in the original timetable but the Secretariat has now sent out most individual office results. The Committee intends to issue an initial set of All Office annuity results for 2007-2010, in summer 2013.
• The coverage for assurances remains less complete but the Secretariat has recommenced processing the assurances data. The Committee hopes to issue All Office assurances results later in 2013.

Critical illness

• The principal focus for the Committee remains the 2007-2011 data collection exercise, for which processing has initially focused on annuities (see above).
• Working paper 67 has been published. This paper describes a revised analysis methodology that the Committee intends to adopt for results from the 2007-2011 data collection exercise. The paper illustrates the results of using the revised approach on the 2003-2006 experience of accelerated business.
• The Committee is considering issuing 2007 All Office results on the old basis, using a consistent set of offices to the 2006 All Office results, as well as under the revised methodology; to present a further comparison between the two approaches.

Income protection

• Individual IP All Offices experience results for 2007, 2008 and 2009 were released to CMI member offices in February 2013.
• The Committee is currently analysing CMI Income Protection experience by cause of sickness, with the aim of publishing a short working paper and two databases, covering inceptions and terminations experience, 1991-2009, by cause of sickness, to enable practitioners to pursue further investigations if they wish. The working paper and data are expected to be released in summer 2013, and some results of the work were presented at the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries' Health and Care Conference in May 2013.
• The Committee is also developing a spreadsheet-based tool to assist practitioners in deriving the tables of claim inception and termination rates and factors required for their in-house profit testing, valuation and experience analysis tools. It is hoped the tool will be made available in 2013 and will help practitioners make full use of the published graduations (SM1975-78 and IPM 1991-98) and experience.

Self-administered pension schemes (SAPS) mortality

• Working paper 66 was published in April 2013, consulting on proposed "S2" graduations of the data underlying Working paper 65. Note: This paper is available to Authorised Users only. The Committee is currently considering the responses and expects to finalise the tables in Autumn 2013.
• Working paper 65, also published in April 2013, presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data received by 30 June 2012, covering the period 2004 to 2011. Note: This paper is available to Authorised Users only.

Technical

• Working paper 68 was published in July 2013 and contains two notes on statistical modelling of mortality and morbidity experience data. Note: This paper is available to Authorised Users only.

Contact us

For further information contact the CMI at info@cmilimited.co.uk.