Continuous Mortality Investigation news

Version 1.3 of the CMI library of mortality projections has been published. This contains 22 additional projections, including the ONS 2010-based National Population Projections, projections using the P-Spline age-cohort and Lee-Carter models applied to ONS data to 2010, and sample projections from the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2011.
CMI Working paper 55 was published in September 2011. This paper accompanies the issue of the updated version of the CMI mortality projections model, CMI_2011 and illustrates the impact of incorporating data for 2010. Issued alongside the paper are the revised and updated versions of the model and the user guide.

In June 2008, the CMI published bulletins for life assurance and annuities, critical illness insurance and income protection insurance that life insurers may opt to rely on to support differential pricing in response to the Sex Discrimination (Amendment of Legislation) Regulations 2008 and associated guidance. Updated differentials, using data for 2003-2006, were published in April 2009 for mortality, in February 2010 for critical illness, and in June 2010 for income protection.

CMI Working paper 57 was published in September 2011. This paper contains a discussion and consultation on how the initial results (described in Working paper 56) may be developed in future.
CMI Working paper 56 was also published in September 2011. This paper sets out the initial format for results using per-policy life office mortality data together with the methodology, following the consultation in Working paper 45. The CMI Secretariat will soon be able to release individual office results to those offices that have submitted per-policy data. A template spreadsheet of per policy results can be accessed here.
The Committee is continuing its reappraisal of the processing of per-policy data. This may result in further relaxation of the checks on the accuracy of data across years, as trying to reconcile individual records across years has been identified as the area causing greatest difficulty for offices and the CMI.
As more offices have submitted per-policy data, the number of data submissions in the old scheduled format has reduced. As a result we do not expect to release 2007 'All Office' results based only on this data. Results will be produced combining scheduled data with 2007 per-policy data in due course.

Working paper 58 has been published. This paper describes supplementary analyses designed to aid understanding of the AC04 Series rates which were presented in Working paper 50. The paper reports on the experience of subsets of the data and considers whether their defining characteristics could be regarded as risk factors not allowed for explicitly in the AC04 series rates. The sensitivity of the rates to the main assumptions underlying them is also considered.
David Heeney and Dave Grimshaw presented a summary of Working paper 50 and subsequent work at the Actuarial Profession's Health and care conference in May 2011. A copy of the slides is available here.
2007 data is still awaited from two of the larger data contributors. The Committee is reluctant to release All Office results until these are received as the results would not be directly comparable to previous results.

Working paper 60 was published in February 2012. This paper reports individual IP experience for 2003-06 together with summary results to show the trend in experience over 1991-2006. The experience is compared for the first time with that expected using the IPM 1991-98 graduations. More detailed results tables have been released alongside the paper in spreadsheet format.
A supporting paper, Working paper 59, was also published in February 2012. This paper provides summary documentation of the revised methodology and reporting format implemented, alongside the introduction of IPM 1991-98, for Working Paper 60.
The 2007 'All Office' results for individual IP were released to members in February 2011. Data collection is nearing completion for the 2008 and 2009 investigation years. The Committee has held off production of All Office results whilst making further efforts, with significant recent success, to obtain data from all the offices which contributed data for 2007.
Graduations of individual IP sickness inception and termination experience for 1991-98, of males, occupation class 1, were released in July 2010. Working paper 48 provides an overview of these graduations which are known as IPM 1991-98.

Working paper 53 has been published. This paper presents a high level analysis of mortality improvements within the SAPS dataset, covering the period 2001-2009.
Following feedback from SAPS members, which indicated that the high level analysis was valuable and that further detailed analysis is not considered high priority, the SAPS Mortality Committee is considering whether to investigate further the feasibility of undertaking more rigorous analysis of mortality improvements.
Working paper 51 has been published. This paper presents an analysis of the experience of data received by 30 June 2010, covering the period 2002-2009. The main data files are also available.
An analysis of experience by industry type, using the dataset collected by 30 June 2010, is underway.
Work has commenced on processing data received by 30 June 2011. The Committee is aiming to present an analysis of the experience of this data, covering the period 2003-2010, in a working paper that is expected to be issued in draft form to SAPS members towards the end of this year.

For further information contact the CMI at info@cmib.org.uk.