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Brexit

Two flags

With the aftermath of the vote to leave the European Union dominating political debate in the UK, the Government has negotiated the terms of its withdrawal from the EU. The Withdrawal Agreement Bill has passed its second stage reading in the House of Commons, but time ran out for the legislation to pass before the 31st October deadline. The EU has therefore granted an extension, lasting until the 1 February 2020 at the latest. The EU has included in this delay the provision that the Withdrawal Agreement isn’t up for renegotiation during the extension period.

The Government has subsequently called a General Election, which will take place on 12 December. Brexit is likely to feature heavily during the campaign as a key issue, and whoever forms a Government following the vote will have to answer a number of questions almost immediately after taking office. For example, will the Prime Minister be able to secure support for a withdrawal agreement in time, or will the UK leave without a deal on the 1 February 2020? Will the PM ask for an extension, or cancel Article 50, halting the UK’s departure? Whatever happens, it is important that the IFoA and its members are continue to prepare for any eventuality.

What’s more, if and when the UK does leave the EU, in whatever form Brexit takes, it is likely to impact the work of actuaries in the UK and EU. It will mean potential changes to regulation, such as Solvency II, as well as affecting migration, demographics, and the broader economy. Quite how its effects will manifest themselves still remains highly uncertain.

Brexit timeline of events

View our Brexit timeline of events for more details on the process to date, and the key dates still to be navigated.

Getting ready for Brexit

1 February is less than a four months away, and before the election was called the Government launched a campaign to ensure that UK citizens and businesses are prepared for the potential impacts of Brexit, if the UK leaves on that date. Although this has now been paused, preparations continue in anticipation of a 1 February departure date.

The IFoA has been engaging with the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) to ensure that the IFoA is prepared for all Brexit eventualities. BEIS provides the IFoA with regular updates and resources, and we have also attended numerous Brexit Readiness events, including forums on no-deal communication and the mutual recognition of qualifications.

The IFoA will be taking steps to mitigate any potential Brexit effects, and would encourage all members to make sure their places of work are aware of the need to do the same.

The Government has prepared a number of tools and resources to help people and businesses get Brexit ready, and the IFoA would encourage its members to take advantage of the available guidance:

Further information is being issued all the time, so remember to keep checking for the latest updates and guidance. Organisations wanting to keep up to date with the latest news and preparedness events from BEIS via the Brexit Business Readiness Bulletin can join the mailing list by emailing sed@beis.gov.uk.

Brexit challenges and opportunities for the profession

Over the past year, the IFoA’s Council has considered the potential for Brexit to impact the IFoA, actuaries and the industries in which they work. These challenges and opportunities are summarised below.

Managing macroeconomic effects

  • No Deal: Most sources predict that a ‘No Deal’ Brexit will have an immediate negative effect on the UK economy, potentially causing a shrink in UK GDP.
  • The Deal:  A managed Brexit is predicted to lead to a smaller negative impact on the UK economy following withdrawal

Trade relationships with EU and non-EU countries 

  • No Deal: With no new trade agreement with the EU, the rules of the World Trade Organisation would apply. Mutual recognition and access to the single market would end, necessitating a new regime, however the UK Government has indicated it would accept some European Union rules allow EU firms to operate in the UK for up to three years.  
  • The Deal: The Government aims to secure the freest and most frictionless trade possible in goods with the EU outside the single market via a new free trade agreement. Mutual recognition of professional qualifications would continue, but importantly  services will not be included in the new customs arrangement.

Maintaining high regulatory standards while encouraging innovation and growth   

  • No Deal: The UK would cease to be a member of dozens of regulatory agencies that govern many aspects of daily life. It will be particularly challenging for the UK to assume this responsibility all at once if a 'no deal' scenario also means that there is no transition period.
  • The  Deal: There would be regulatory arrangements for financial services, but these would not replicate the EU's passporting regimes (which enables authorised EU firms  to trade freely in any EU state), meaning that the UK and the EU will not maintain current  levels of access to each other's markets.

The impact on actuaries and their employers

  • No Deal: The UK government has indicated it intends to secure the rights of EU citizens living in the UK under a 'no deal' Brexit scenario. The rights of UK citizens living in the EU have not yet been guaranteed. Members would experience significant disruption while new regimes were put in place, including mutual recognition of qualifications and working cross-border.
  • The  Deal: While an agreement will limit the immediate effects of a Brexit on the profession, the end of passporting, the lack of regulatory equivalence, and freedom of movement are potential challenges.

We will continue to monitor and react to the opportunities and challenges that Brexit presents.

Contact Details

Policy Team

policy@actuaries.org.uk

IFoA, 7th Floor, Holborn Gate, 326 – 330 High Holborn, WC1V 7PP

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Events calendar

  • ARC Sessional Research Event: Drivers of Mortality - Risk Factors and Inequality

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    6 January 2020

    Spaces available

    The authors will focus on a large dataset obtained from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) and related sources. Data are available at the level of Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) – small geographical areas with, typically, 1000-2000 residents and include death counts, exposures and a significant number of socio-economic variables including the index of multiple deprivation (IMD).

  • SIAS Event: My Journey to Data Science, Big Data and AI

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    7 January 2020

    Spaces available

    Patrick Lee is an actuary who has made the transition to working in software architecture and artificial intelligence (AI). He holds Microsoft Professional qualifications in Data Science, Big Data and AI and is currently working towards a DevOps (the automation of software testing and deployment) qualification. He is a member of the IFoA Council and is also President of the Wessex Actuarial Society. He is also a member of the IFoA and the RSS's joint Data Science Focus Group and will talk on the ethical use of AI. 

  • Spaces available

    This IFoA event for NEDs explores what skills and experience are required to undertake non-executive roles, e.g. as independent NEDs on fund boards or members of IGCs. The event will be chaired by Brandon Horwitz, an actuary who is a consultant and who has held various investment governance roles and who specialises in investment governance as well as being an iNED.

  • Spaces available

    This presentation covers the detail for how the matching adjustment is calculated. A small simple example spreadsheet is provided and discussed in detail.

    For actuaries wanting to get more involved with the matching adjustment, this is the opportunity to get a detailed description of the mechanics involved. This includes cashflows derisking, PRA tests as well as hypothecation.

    The presentation is provided by James Sharpe who has worked on a number of matching adjustment calculations with several firms.

  • IFoA Volunteer Recognition Reception

    Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London WC1V 6DR, UK
    15 January 2020

    Spaces available

    As a thank you to all our Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) volunteers, you are invited to join us at Staple Inn Hall, for an evening of drinks, canapes and networking, in London.

    IFoA President, John Taylor, will be attending and will make a speech

    If you support the IFoA as a volunteer (member or non-member), or in any other role, and you are going to be in London on 15 January, please book your place and join us at this reception.

     

  • Sessional Meeting - Operational Risk Dependencies

    Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh 9 Queen St Edinburgh EH2 1JQ
    20 January 2020

    Spaces available

    The Operational Risk Working Party aims to assist actuaries and others in the modelling and management of operational risk. One of the key challenges in modelling operational risk is the modelling of dependencies between operational risks, and between operational and non-operational risks such as market, credit and insurance risk.

  • KSS event in Glasgow: Public Sector Pensions

    Hymans Robertson, Glasgow 20 Waterloo St, Glasgow
    30 January 2020

    Spaces available

    – the unappreciated key assumption, the resulting unsustainable promises, the unmanaged risk and the unrecognised debt? 

    Speaker: Allan Martin will present this talk on 30 January in Glasgow, Stirling and Edinburgh. If you wish to register for another location please return to the Events Calendar.

  • KSS event in Stirling: Public Sector Pensions

    M&G Prudential, Stirling Craigforth Campus, Stirling
    30 January 2020

    Spaces available

    – the unappreciated key assumption, the resulting unsustainable promises, the unmanaged risk and the unrecognised debt? 

    Speaker: Allan Martin will present this talk on 30 January in Glasgow, Stirling and Edinburgh. If you wish to register for another location please return to the Events Calendar.

  • KSS event in Edinburgh: Public Sector Pensions

    Hymans Robertson 1, Exchange Place, Semple St, Edinburgh
    30 January 2020

    Spaces available

    – the unappreciated key assumption, the resulting unsustainable promises, the unmanaged risk and the unrecognised debt? 

    Speaker: Allan Martin will present this talk on 30 January in Glasgow, Stirling and Edinburgh. If you wish to register for another location please return to the Events Calendar.

  • The Great Risk Transfer – Breakfast briefing and launch event

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    31 January 2020

    Spaces available

    Launch of the IFoA’s 2020 thought leadership campaign The Great Risk Transfer. The campaign will examine the trend of the transfer of risk from institutions to individuals, and how people can be better equipped to manage the financial risks they now face. At this breakfast event the IFoA will launch a call for evidence on this topic.

  • Professional Skills Training - London (11 February 2020)

    Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ         
    11 February 2020

    Spaces available

    A Trusted Profession

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

  • Sessional: Impact of E-cigarettes Working Party

    Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ
    24 February 2020

    Spaces available

    This sessional meeting will be of direct interest to actuaries and others working in the in the Health and Care, Life or Pensions sectors or indeed actuaries with an interest in morbidity or mortality. Note: Registration is from 17.30 in time for the sessional to begin at 18.00.

  • Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (25 February 2020)

    IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA
    25 February 2020

    Spaces available

    A Trusted Profession

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

  • What does this mean for Actuaries serving as NEDs and Trustees? These areas are likely to provide ne

    Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London. WC1V 6DR, UK
    19 March 2020

    Spaces available

    Recent years have seen ESG, Climate Change, and Responsible Investing thrust onto the corporate agenda in every boardroom. The same also be said for pension funds. Expectations of how companies should respond are high and NEDs on Boards are expected to adapt and adjust their guidance to companies accordingly. What does this mean for Actuaries serving as NEDs and Trustees?

  • Spring Lecture 2020, Edinburgh - Vicky Pryce

    Assembly Rooms, 54 George St, Edinburgh EH2 2LR
    25 March 2020

    Spaces available

    What next in Economic Policy?

    Please join us on 25 March 2020 for our annual Spring Lecture presented by Vicky Pryce in Edinburgh. 

  • IFoA Asia Conference 2020, Kuala Lumpur

    CCEC Nexus, 7, Jalan Kerinchi, Bangsar South, 59200 Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
    24-25 June 2020
    Spaces available

    The sixth annual Asia Conference once again offers a prestigious line-up of home and international speakers discussing the insurance and financial industry’s innovation and change in Asia. This year's conference in Kuala Lumpur will be hosted by Tan Suee Chieh, IFoA’s first Asian President. He will also make his Presidential address at this conference and will expand on the important elements of IFoA’s new strategy. 

    Additionally, this landmark conference will showcase how the IFoA is reinventing itself to support its members to succeed and thrive in a digital age, within traditional businesses and beyond, as a global organisation. 

    Not to be missed by international industry players, opinion formers, academic and industry leaders, actuaries and non-actuaries.