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Pandemics: IFoA actuarial resources

Pandemics Actuarial Resources

Continuous Mortality Investigation

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing weekly mortality updates. All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

* The CMI operates as a not-for-profit private company that is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA).

 


Addressing the Covid-19 pandemic

Outputs by the IFoA Covid-19 Action Taskforce (ICAT) can also be found arranged by topic on the ICAT workstreams webpages.

Articles

Blogs

Regulation

Webinars

Reports and papers 

  • Mauritius non life industry 2020 analysis This article analyses the impact of Covid-19 on the Mauritius non-life industry. An analysis of the environment of Mauritius is first presented followed by a high-level analysis of the industry results and finally looking at other key considerations for insurers over the next years. By Darshan Purmessur, November 2021.

  • Has the fairness or the prosperity of a country led to better health and economic outcomes from the Covid-19 pandemic? This work product explores the hypothesis “It is the level of equality (fairness) in a country rather than its level of GDP per capita (prosperity) that has led to better health and economic outcomes from the Covid-19 pandemic.”. By Andrew Robinson, John Branford, Inviolata Naliaka Wafula, Sukrita Singh, 30 July 2021

  • COVID-19 Scenario Modelling: Healthcare Sector Scenarios This paper presents some of the parameters that can be used for pandemic scenarios. However, modelling might require time dependent variables for some of the scenarios. This paper proposes 5 possible stress scenarios using following parameters. By Ritu Kotnala, 6 June 2021.

  • The effect of Covid-19 on Private Real Estate Debt Covid-19 pandemic caused major disruption in the global economy and brought about “the new normal”. In this short article, Private Credit for Insurers Working Party investigates the impact of the pandemic on the CRE debt market and outlook for the future. 5 May 2021

  • Small Businesses Weathering the Covid-19 Storm This note by Isha Gadewar and Aldous Silas A, gives us an insight into the difficulties faced by micro, small and medium sizes enterprises (MSMEs) during the COVID-19 pandemic and the ways in which they tackled these problems. We also explore how we, as actuaries, can support them. 28 April 2021
  • Scenario Modelling of Covid-19: Analysis of key classes in P&C industry. This paper by Darshan Purmessur and Haedeh Nazari gives guidance on stress testing and scenario analysis and aims to offer a perspective on the forecast of some key classes of business for general insurers. This would allow the analysis of the impact of severe events or sequence of events on the financial state of short-term insurers. 23 April 2021
  • Mortality Impact of Covid-19 Vaccination in England: publication of models and an update. This report presents updated data and findings, as a follow-up to the earlier results in the paper “Mortality Impact of Covid-19 Vaccination in England: Counterfactual Insights from Gompertz to Machine Learning", published on 1 March 2021. Additionally we provide estimation of the number of deaths prevented by vaccination and compare against the Public Health England and Warwick University studies. 29 March 2021

Digests

Longevity Bulletin: The coronavirus issue (Issue 13)

In 2020 coronavirus swept around the world, causing over a million deaths to date and creating economic turmoil. Issue 13 of the Longevity Bulletin considers aspects of the biggest worldwide catastrophe of our age.

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Events calendar

  • Spaces available

    The Actuaries’ Carbon Collaboration (ACC) is a group of actuaries and other professionals working towards a coherent understanding of the issues around greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by considering them in an actuarial context.

    Emissions into and absorption from the atmosphere can be modelled in the same way that we model variable cash flows, including the impacts of uncertain quantities and timing. The ACC’s work investigates both the insights that this analogy provides and its limitations.

  • Spaces available

    This talk presents the work of the Data and Modelling workstream of the IFoA Mental Health Working Party. We explore data and modelling considerations in the risk assessment and underwriting of mental health conditions. We will also consider how newer risk factors and improved data availability might open up opportunities for additional underwriting and product designs.

  • Pensions Dashboards

    12 July 2022

    Spaces available

    As the industry prepares for Pensions Dashboards, we have lined up a specialist panel who is at the heart of the ongoing work in this area. Hear the latest developments, future proposals and have the opportunity to put forward your questions to our speakers.

  • Spaces available

    Crisis management, the process by which an organization deals with a disruptive, sudden and unexpected event that threatens to harm the organization or its stakeholders, has become a key concern in the light of the Pandemic and Geopolitical risks.

  • Spaces available

    Artificial Intelligence is heralded as a game-changer to the ways industries use data, with the insurance industry especially looking to embrace these new technologies. This brings many questions – not least around data privacy, ethics, potential biases and so on – with regulators increasingly interested in developments.

    Moreover, whilst the stunning progress of specific technologies such as Watson and Alphazero made headlines some years ago, current commercial applications of AI remain far from mature.

  • Spaces available

    This webinar will cover:

    • Some background on the risks of misselling in an ESG context, including the DWS case

    • Achieving positive impact is a strong antidote to the risks of greenwashing or ESG misselling, however this risks having a tension with fiduciary responsibilities

    • This tension can be resolved with a concept called Universal Ownership

    • Under Universal ownership, investors have an appetite to make a loss in order to achieve positive impact, and yet still have no compromise on their fiduciary responsibilities

  • Spaces available

    This session will focus on the transformation roadmap of the healthcare sector in KSA and the role of actuarial capabilities in enhancing its evolution to the desired end stage as per the objectives of the Vision 2030. The discussion will focus how the system has evolved so far and shed light on  the expected future changes. Through examining  the transformation, we will highlight how the sector is and can use actuarial  expertise to not only assist with this transformation but also use basic actuarial principles to identify the key risks and their respective mitigation strategies.

  • Spaces available

    The purpose of this research paper is to explore enterprise risk management lessons which can be learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic in preparation for potential future pandemics as well as other “gray rhino” or “black swan” events. This paper is not intended to be an all-encompassing solution to the issues presented by Covid-19; rather, the content has been provided to help drive discussions regarding how risk management processes may need to evolve in line with the dynamic nature of the underlying risks that they sometimes need to capture.

  • Spaces available

    The IFoA's Infrastructure Working Party, led by Chris Lewin, will present its new introductory guide to infrastructure investment, which will be published on the IFoA web-site prior to the webinar.   Those readers whose institutions have already taken the plunge into infrastructure will know that it is a highly complex and diverse field of activity.   This guide does not explore all the matters which investors take into account, but it does discuss many of the more important points, including the risks and past returns, benchmarking, and ESG and SDG considerations.    Attendees will be invi

  • Spaces available

    Health contributes to happiness at the personal, family, community and societal level.  Health, importantly underpins all our economic security. This talk will explore the drivers of our health, the measurement of health and the steps we can take to improve health – most of which lie outside the NHS.