Continuous Mortality Investigation
During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing weekly mortality updates. All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.
* The CMI operates as a not-for-profit private company that is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA).
Addressing the Covid-19 pandemic
- Solvency II – countercyclical capital requirements and regulatory flexibility, 26 January 20201
- National Narratives on Covid-19, 22 January 2021
- Impact Investing – Can We Make Returns and Reduce Inequality? 22 January 2021
- Shoring up defences during market volatility, The Actuary, Niamh Carr, Kamran Foroughi, 25 August 2020.
- Coronavirus statistics in the UK: How reliable is the data? Richard Kelsey, 12 June 2020.
- COVID-19: Using an Automated Chain Ladder technique to predict ultimate Daily Deaths in a live environment, Richard Kelsey, 10 June 2020.
- Mortality risk factors, Matthew Edwards, 15 May 2020.
- The co-morbidity question, Matthew Edwards and Stuart McDonald, The Actuary, May 2020.
- What is the difference between longevity and mortality? Matthew Edwards, 28 April 2020.
- Modelling and Covid-19. Louise Pryor, Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. 26 March 2020.
- The impact of the pandemic on retirement provision, 27 January 2021.
- Universal Basic Income: Where have UBI schemes not been implemented? Stephen Moncrief, 27 January 2021.
- Impact Investing – Can We Make Returns and Reduce Inequality? 27 January 2021.
- Financial reporting issues arising from Covid-19. 25 January 2021
- What is the goal as we build back better from the aftermath of COVID-19? Josephine Robertson,18 January 2021.
- The road ahead to motor insurance reserving, Harshitta Malakar, from the IFoA’s COVID-19 ICAT General Insurance Claims Inflation group, 13 January 2021.
- What happens if hospital capacity is breached? Stuart McDonald 08 January 2021
- Social Inflation, 06 January 2021.
- Social Security systems act as a window on future COVID-19 related imbalances, 06 January 2021.
- Universal Basic Income: What is the experience? Stephen Moncrief, 31 December 2020.
- Impact of Covid-19 on health insurance in India, 31 December 2020.
- Unforeseen challenges: An insight into volunteering on an IFoA pandemic working group, PAN4 COVID-19 workstream, 31 December 2020.
- Impact of Covid-19 on Marine and Aviation Insurance, 23 December 2020.
- Keeping the mortality spike in context, Phil Caine, 22 December 2020.
- International Data Source Log, 25 November 2020.
- Covid-19’s impact on the charge assumptions for unit-linked business, 17 November 2020.
- Impact of Covid-19 on margins over and above best estimate assumptions in financial reporting, 12 November 2020.
- Is now the time for Universal Basic Income?, Stephen Moncrief, 06 November 2020.
- Considerations for setting persistency assumptions, 30 October 2020.
- Using hindsight to gain foresight, 28 October 2020.
- Impact of Covid-19 on life insurance new business sales, 27 October 2020.
- Bonus rates for participating products in a Covid-19 world, 23 October 2020.
- Potential differences in impacts of Covid-19 in different countries, 12 October 2020.
- Covid-19: Is social security failing amidst the pandemic?, Laura Llewellyn-Jones, 15 October 2020.
- Furlough vs. Unemployment Support - which is best?, Alan Newton, 30 September 2020.
- The prevalence of pro-cyclicality in the financial industry, Denis Walsh, 28 September 2020.
- Covid-19, outcome bias and the impact on actuarial analysis, Gordon Woo, Will Davies, Matt Attard, Sophie Weisenberger, 21 September 2020.
- The Minsky Moment of Fallen Angels Risk, Lawrence Habahbeh, 15 September 2020.
- Communicating actuarial concepts with real-world examples from the COVID-19 pandemic, Andrea Munley, 09 September 2020
- So you’ve caught the pandemic modelling bug; now what?, Richard Marshall, 26 August 2020.
- Income and inequalities - thoughts as we emerge from lockdown, Andrew Robinson, John Branford, Naliaka Wafula, Sukrita Chabbra, 17 August 2020.
- Property: another COVID-19 victim, Lizzie Waghorn and David Mitchell, 12 August 2020.
- Addressing sustainability: Why actuaries need to change their mindset to change the world, Simon Jones, 10 August, 2020.
- The Investment Manager’s View: It’s Day 135 in the Big Brother House, John Roe, 07, August, 2020.
- Who’s afraid of adverse selection? Pradip Tapadar, Guy Thomas, 04 August, 2020.
- The impact of COVID-19 on social care, Ian Collier, James Cripps, Fiona Fan and Adele Groyer, 03 August 2020.
- ONS data – providing early indicators to insurers, Steve Bale, 6 July 2020
- It was on the risk register, Neil Cantle, 6 July 2020
- Zoom boom or Zoom doom?, Oliver Shaw, Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, 10 June 2020.
- How good is my test?, Louise Pryor, Insititute and Faculty of Actuaries, 05 June 2020.
- ICAT COVID-19 survey results, Kirstin Cam, Julie Pallister, Holly Steward, and Randall Wright of the IFoA’s COVID-19 Action Taskforce (ICAT) summarise a recent survey of ICAT volunteers. 04 June 2020.
- COVID-19: the need for liquidity and dealing with increased asset volatility – what can insurers and pension funds do? Norman Peard, 27 May 2020.
- COVID-19 report: Impact on new business in health & care, 21 May 2020.
- So close yet so far: COVID-19 isolation, Rosalind Rossouw, IFoA’s Diversity Advisory Group, 11 May 2020.
- Uncertainty and Coronavirus, Andrew Smith, Professor at University College, Dublin, 7 May 2020.
- COVID-19 impact on individual assets and balance sheet for Insurers, Gareth Mee, Deputy Chair of the IFoA’s Finance and Investment Board, 06 May 2020.
- What a difference a word makes, Matthew Edwards, 27 April 2020.
- Investment Actuaries: Check your COVID-19 response, Dick Rae, IFoA Finance and Investment Board Chair, 21 April 2020.
- Global Pandemic - the great leveller? Chika Aghadiuno, Chair of the IFoA’s Diversity Advisory Group. 17 April 2020.
- Home working: Has your business thoroughly assessed the risk? Vishesh Gosranit and Stephanie Eybers. 25 April 2020.
- Scheme Actuaries: check your Covid-19 contingency plans. Mark Williams, IFoA Pensions Practice Board Chair, 25 April 2020.
- Contingency plans for Practising Certificate holders
- Risk Alert COVID-19
- Covid-19 and IFoA regulation: how it affects IFoA members
- Twitter Sentiment Analysis: What does Social Media tell us about coronavirus concerns in the UK?
- Extreme Mortality Events – How Bad is Coronavirus?
- Challenging Conventional Wisdom – What Currently Accepted ‘Truths’ About COVID-19 Are Wrong?
Reports and papers
- Mortality Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in England
- Covid-19 and pension saving: A perspective of product providers - In a discussion with representatives of leading defined contribution providers, members of the Institute’s ICAT DC work stream learned of the behaviours of employees in response to COVID-19 during 2020. 16 February 2021
- Covid-19 and pension saving: The impact of missing contributions - The results of our modelling suggest that, unsurprisingly, the impact will vary depending on age, the period during which contributions are missed, and the various future economic conditions. The upside is that on reasonable assumptions, and allowing for some sensitivity margins, the resolution by way of additional future contributions could be manageable if action is taken immediately upon returning to work. 16 February 2021
- General Insurance Pandemic Scenario Modelling: Constructing a Simplified Exposure-Based Realistic Disaster Scenario (RDS). This paper has been authored by Maryam Abdullah. 26 January 2021
- Cyber Security Implications of COVID-19 for Companies. 18 January 2021
- Countercyclical measures in Solvency II. This paper has been authored by a group of Life actuaries led by Paul Fulcher. The group has a focus on Capital Management and is working as part of the IFoA Covid-19 Action Taskforce. 04 January 2021.
COVID-19 Report: Statistics, Ratios and understanding limitations of data available, The paper has been authored by L.R. Lopes Junior, S. Aggarwal, M. Qazvini, 30 December 2020
- Pandemic impact on the insurance and pension industry, The paper has been authored by John Dalmaris, Ashley Campbell, Aparna Batra and Naman Jain, 22 December 2020
- Pandemic Model Meta-Research - Tranche 1: Reviews of models published at the start of the outbreak
- Case Study: Personal and Commercial Lines Motor
- How insurance company solvency ratios performed during COVID-19, authored by a group of Life actuaries led by Ivy Ye
- Case Study: Travel Insurance
- COVID-19 report: Impact on distribution of protection products - This report considers the impact that COVID-19 has had, and continues to have, on the distribution of protection products in the U.K. We begin by considering the impact of the pandemic during the initial phase (when a strict lockdown was in place), the period following the strict lockdown and the potential long-term impact of the pandemic. Authored by Adele Groyer, Chris Reynolds and Vicky Gardner.
- Countercyclical measures in Solvency II - This paper has been authored by a group of Life actuaries led by Paul Fulcher. The group has a focus on Capital Management and is working as part of the IFoA Covid-19 Action Taskforce.
- Covid-19 Action Taskforce (ICAT) for General Insurance Pricing Actuaries: Case Study: Impact on Directors and Officers - How COVID-19 is impacting the work of Directors and Officers in General Insurance.
- Economic hardship, health and COVID-19, (Health and Care) This bulletin is authored by Nicola Oliver and Scott Reid and is focused on the economic consequences of COVID-19 on employment and subsequent mental health outcomes.
- COVID-19 and Future Pandemic Scenario Modelling for Property and Casualty (P&C) Insurers and Reinsurers - In this report Maryam Abdullah, Haedeh Nazari and Darshan Purmessur explore the various lines exposures to COVID-19 and look at the potential P&C market changes caused by it. They also attempt to define processes for P&C pandemic scenario modelling and exposure management.
- COVID-19 and pandemic response unemployment - COVID-19 is causing a severe economic recession in the United Kingdom (UK) due to unprecedented government interventions to control the virus that was declared a pandemic on 11 March 2020 . In this bulletin Scott Reid, John Ng, Dr Chris Martin and Josephine Robertson focus on UK unemployment forecasts where the working group have provided an application using R-Shiny to enable actuaries to consider a range of expert opinions and functionality to create custom scenarios. The code for this is open access.
- COVID-19 Report: Impact on social care (Health and Care) - In this paper James Cripps, Adele Groyer, Ian Collier and Fiona Fan look to provide some insight into the impact of COVID-19 on social care and the health and wellbeing of those receiving care. We focus on the UK, but we consider the relative outcomes in other countries and any insight that provides.
- COVID-19 Report: Impact on New Business (Health and Care) - In this paper, Adele Groyer, Christopher Reynolds and Vicky Gardner consider the challenges posed by COVID-19 on the distribution and risk management of new business in the UK individual and group protection space.
- COVID-19 Report: Supporting protection insurance and savings customers (Health and Care) - In this paper Richard Purcell and Nick Reilly consider the potential direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on customers and what can be done by government and UK providers of protection insurance and long-term savings products to support them.
- COVID-19 Report: Identifying insured customers more at risk (Health and Care) - In this Paper Scott Reid, David Beddows, Raunak Jha, Nicola Oliver, and John Ng review some of the key studies available to date to understand insights into the impact on mortality and morbidity at a high level from the perspective of an insurer, as well considering how COVID-19 may impact insured populations and which customers are likely to be most at risk.
- The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Digest 3
- The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Digest 2.
- The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Digest 1.
Longevity Bulletin: The coronavirus issue (Issue 13)
In 2020 coronavirus swept around the world, causing over a million deaths to date and creating economic turmoil. Issue 13 of the Longevity Bulletin considers aspects of the biggest worldwide catastrophe of our age.
Filter or search events
As part of the ARC Webinar Series 2021, this webinar will review the work of the UEA/Aviva research team over the last four years on a major research programme funded by the IFoA’s Actuarial Research Centre.
Climate change poses a significant threat across many regions and sectors, and businesses. Insurers and asset managers, must play a role in ensuring transparency around climate related risks and opportunities.
Whilst insurers have been performing stress and scenario testing for many years, in the last 12 months the PRA has increased its focus on the ability to identify, measure and increase financial and operational resilience.
There is widening debate that many of our social, financial and regulatory institutions need to be rethought so that we can create more sustainable futures, particularly in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, the policy/macro-economic response to the pandemic and how it affects consumers, as well as the impending climate crisis. This multi-day series of three keynote webinars, individually presented by leading economist John Kay, Sir Paul Collier, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, Ashok Gupta, Chair at Mercer Ltd, and Nico Aspinall, Chief Investment Officer at B&CE, will open up discussion on these essential topics. The series will culminate in a panel session with Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane.
This webinar provides an overview of the state of the UK protection market, and how different insurers are using different levels of sophistication to price (such as using customer demand models). It considers how insurers have implemented these sophisticated pricing techniques, and the practical challenges they have faced.
This discussion will revolve around the latest industry developments including and introduction to Part VII transfers and Schemes of Arrangement (process, parties involved and recent events), insights and lessons from recent with-profits transactions and restructurings (including Equitable Life and Pru-Rothesay), how firms can apply these learnings to future arrangements, and the outlook for future with-profits transactions and restructurings (including the impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit)
What is stewardship and how has the landscape changed under the 2020 UK Stewardship Code? How does effective stewardship create long term value for beneficiaries and what roles do asset owners and asset managers play in active stewardship. This webinar will offer answers to these questions in a practical approach to stewardship reporting.
Dr Catherine Donnelly will present the basics of the structures for pooling longevity risks and summarise recent research results in this area in addition to outlinging future research around this topic. This is work under a research programme funded by the IFoA's Actuarial Research Centre, called 'Minimizing longevity and investment risk while optimising future pension plans'.
Mis-estimation risk is a key element of demographic risk, and past work has focused on mis-estimation risk on a run-off basis. However, this does not meet the requirements of regulatory regimes like Solvency II, which demands that capital requirements are set through the prism of a finite horizon like one year. This paper presents a value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk suitable for Solvency II work.