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Pandemics: IFoA actuarial resources

Pandemics Actuarial Resources

Continuous Mortality Investigation

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing weekly mortality updates. All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

* The CMI operates as a not-for-profit private company that is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA).


Addressing the Covid-19 pandemic

Outputs by the IFoA Covid-19 Action Taskforce (ICAT) can also be found arranged by topic on the ICAT worksteams webpages.





Reports and papers 

  • COVID-19 Scenario Modelling: Healthcare Sector Scenarios This paper presents some of the parameters that can be used for pandemic scenario. However, modelling might require time dependent variables for some of the scenarios. This paper proposes 5 possible stress scenarios using following parameters. By Ritu Kotnala, 6 June 2021.

  • The effect of Covid-19 on Private Real Estate Debt COVID-19 pandemic caused major disruption in the global economy and brought about “the new normal”. In this short article, Private Credit for Insurers Working Party investigates the impact of the pandemic on the CRE debt market and outlook for the future. 5 May 2021

  • Small Businesses Weathering the COVID-19 Storm This note by Isha Gadewar and Aldous Silas A, gives us an insight into the difficulties faced by micro, small and medium sizes enterprises (MSMEs) during the COVID-19 pandemic and the ways in which they tackled these problems. We also explore how we, as actuaries, can support them. 28 april 2021
  • Scenario Modelling of COVID-19: Analysis of key classes in P&C industry. This paper by Darshan Purmessur and Haedeh Nazari gives guidance on stress testing and scenario analysis and aims to offer a perspective on the forecast of some key classes of business for general insurers. This would allow the analysis of the impact of severe events or sequence of events on the financial state of short-term insurers. 23 April 2021
  • Mortality Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in England: publication of models and an update. This report presents updated data and findings, as a follow-up to the earlier results in the paper “Mortality Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in England: Counterfactual Insights from Gompertz to Machine Learning", published on 1 March 2021. Additionally we provide estimation of the number of deaths prevented by vaccination and compare against the Public Health England and Warwick University studies. 29 March 2021


Longevity Bulletin: The coronavirus issue (Issue 13)

In 2020 coronavirus swept around the world, causing over a million deaths to date and creating economic turmoil. Issue 13 of the Longevity Bulletin considers aspects of the biggest worldwide catastrophe of our age.

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