The Population Ageing, Implications for Asset Values, and Impact for Pension Plans: An International Study is primarily funded by the Canadian Funding Body SSHRC, with additional financial support from the IFoA, the Society of Actuaries in the USA, the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, the University of Waterloo and the University of Kent.
Latest news
New international research on the connection between population structure and bond yields
Wednesday 15 April 2020
The IFoA has published a new international research paper, released jointly with the Society of Actuaries and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries. This research looks at the implications for population ageing on different asset classes and illustrates that impact on the financial status of pension plans. Exploring the impact of population ageing on bond yields in various countries, this research finds that the ratio of the middle-aged to the young or old population is associated with either a reduction or an increase of bond yields at various points on the yield curve. Read the full report here.
As part of this wider project, the IFoA is funding a PhD student (Aniketh Pittea), based at the University of Kent, who is specifically focusing on:
- developing a generic economic capital model of a large pension plan which can suitably be adapted to represent pension schemes in the UK, US, Canada and other developing countries
- implementing and integrating the demographic and asset valuation models, developed during the other phases of the research initiative, in the economic capital model of the pension plan
- analysing the impact and sensitivity of demographic structure and asset valuation models on the financial risk management of pension plan
- suggesting alternative risk-mitigating strategies that can be employed by pension plans to cope with the underlying risks.
The research project will break new ground by incorporating gender into an overlapping generations model to better understand the differences in retirement outcomes for males and females. It is also set to include international capital flows in the analysis and will consider the impact on specific asset classes, such as equities, property and infrastructure.
The research findings will have important implications for pension funds, asset managers, and individuals. If asset prices are materially affected by an ageing population, then actuaries and risk managers need to incorporate this consideration into their work.
Latest events and publications
Joint CIA, IFoA, SOA Webcast: Measuring Pension Plan Risk from an Economic Capital Perspective
Wednesday 15 May 2019
Jointly sponsored by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Society of Actuaries, and CIA, this webcast presented research that compares the risk profiles of pension plans in the UK, the US, and Canada. By the end of this session, attendees were able to:
Identify the key items that affect the financial risk of a defined benefit pension plan;
Compare the financial risk implications of different pension plan designs; and
Evaluate the impact of alternative asset mix policies on the financial risk of a pension plan.
Speakers: Stephen Bonnar (FCIA), University of Waterloo, Aniketh Pittea and Pradip Tapadar, School of Mathematics, Statistics & Actuarial Science, University of Kent
About the webcast: Economic capital, the 0.5th percentile result of a stochastic projection, is the primary risk measure employed. The research examines not only the difference in economic capital requirements between typical plans in the three countries, but also its sensitivity to changes in asset allocation, contributions, and starting funded status. The recording is now available to members in the VLE. If you have any questions regarding this webcast please email us.
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The IFoA, CIA and SOA launch innovative international pensions risk report
Wednesday 13 November 2019
In November, we were proud to announce the launch of a pensions-focused research report from the University of Kent and the University of Waterloo, in Canada. This research has been supported by an international partnership of funders, including the IFoA, the Canadian Institute of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries in the US. In this essential new research report, ‘A Tale of Two Pensions Plans’, the research team explore the potential challenges faced by Defined Benefit pension scheme sponsors and trustees in ensuring security of benefits for pension scheme members and the associated uncertainty.
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2018 International Congress of Actuaries, Berlin
We are delighted to announce that this research team were selected for a Best Paper Award at the 2018 International Congress of Actuaries in Berlin. Countries with an ageing population are concerned that the expected drop in saving and investment will result in substantially diminished asset prices and compromised pension plans. This award-winning paper contributes to the quantification of the link between population structure and asset values, by modelling returns on assets in the presence of demographic change.
From left to right Lori Curtis, Kate Rybczynski, Steve Bonnar (all University of Waterloo), Jaideep Oberoi (University of Kent), award presenter (Juergen Bierbaum). Other co-authors not present: Miguel Leon-Ledesma (University of Kent) and Mark Zhou (CMHC). It was the ICA 2018 Best Paper Award - Demographic Change and Longevity and the presenter stated that one aspect of the paper which the committee liked was the way it combined economic models with actuarial science.
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Contact Details
If you have any questions or wish to discuss any aspect of research carried out through the Actuarial Research Centre (ARC), please contact the Research and Knowledge Team.
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Events calendar
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General Insurance Spring Conference 2021 webinar series
Online conference19-25 May 2021
The General Insurance (GI) Spring Conference is a result of the General Insurance Lifelong Learning Committee (GILL) combining this year’s 'Current Issues in General Insurance' (CIGI) and 'Technical Issues in General Insurance' (TIGI) conferences into a virtual webinar series over 19 – 25 May that will be available to watch online globally. -
CILA 2021
Available to watch globally in May.19-21 May 2021
We continue to live in a world of global uncertainty. Survival depends on our ability to simultaneously navigate through the diverse root-causes, ranging from: the consequences of Climate Change; on-going financial consequences of the COVID pandemic; or self-imposed changes in regulatory requirements and accounting standards. -
This is a free webinar on the consultation on changes to the Practising Certificates (PC) Scheme.The proposals come from a recent review of the PC Scheme which was the first substantive look at the IFoA’s approach to the requirements and process for PCs since 2010. It responds directly to feedback received on how the current scheme works especially that received from members and PC Holders.
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The world is changing. The fourth industrial revolution, globalisation and the COVID-19 pandemic are up-ending traditional social and business norms around the world; changes that were once predictable and steady are now faster and more profound. -
Sessional Meeting - Long term stochastic risk models: The 6th generation of modern actuarial models?
7 June 2021
This paper explores the use of long-term stochastic modelling for risk management. Life insurance is a long-term business and carries with it long-term risks, yet a lot of current actuarial risk management is focused on short-term modelling approaches. -
Tools like python/R are being heavily used to provide end-to-end analytical solutions for risk management. They help to set up a framework/platform to collect risk data and work out stochastic analytics to provide insights into the risks faced by a firm, be it in any sector. -
Actuarial Implications of Pandemic: Modelling Unemployment and Mortality Impact of Vaccination
9 June 2021
In this webinar, two presentations present the research from the Health and Care practice area on two key issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic; Scott Reid will share the research on unemployment modelling and John Ng will discuss the mortality impact of vaccination. -
The webinar will look at several aspects of intergenerational fairness and our panel of experts will challenge you, society, taxpayers and generations X, Y and Z on key aspects of DB v DC pensions, public v private sector pensions, state benefits and key aspects of sustainability. -
Pensions Conference 2021
Online webinar series16-22 June 2021
Welcome to the programme for our 2nd Virtual Pensions Conference. This year's conference features 11 webinars offering members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the pension industry. There will also be opportunity to ask questions and contribute to the discussion. -
Presidential Speaker Series with Sir Adrian Smith
23 June 2021Mathematical Futures: The Actuary in a World Transformed – Sir Adrian Smith will outline how advances in data science, machine learning and artificial intelligence in the world of big data will transform the nature of many industries, including financial services. The broader environment within which mathematics is applied will change rapidly, often led by innovative yet disruptive forces outside. These changes will undoubtedly have an impact on the work of actuaries - and the profession will need to adapt quickly to thrive. -
Annual General Meeting 2021
24 June 2021Given our commitment to the safety of our members and employees, and as the easing of restrictions in respect of COVID-19 cannot be guaranteed at this point in time, we have decided to hold our AGM virtually again this year.
The Business of the AGM
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IFoA Presidential Address 2021
25 June 2021Join newly inaugurated IFoA President Dr. Louise Pryor as she explores what we need to do to keep abreast of the changing world – and how we can seize the resulting opportunities – in her Presidential Address, ‘A Learning Society’
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This is a free webinar on the consultation on changes to the Practising Certificates (PC) Scheme.The proposals come from a recent review of the PC Scheme which was the first substantive look at the IFoA’s approach to the requirements and process for PCs since 2010. It responds directly to feedback received on how the current scheme works especially that received from members and PC Holders.
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Actuaries in all practice areas have had an “alert” to consider climate risk. A plethora of scenarios and tools are being developed both internally and as part of industry-wide initiatives but is there yet a sense of good practice?
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The paper “Asset liability modelling in the quantum era” shall be presented by its authors, Tim Berry and James Sharpe, and chaired by Andrew Smith, Assistant Professor in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at University College Dublin.
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Internal audit is often the Cinderella of the audit world. It’s a regulatory requirement for insurance companies to have an internal audit function, so why not make it as useful as possible? This session will look at how to link an internal audit plan to the risk register, and how that helps audit committees and boards to spot problems and fix them.
The General Insurance (GI) Spring Conference is a result of the General Insurance Lifelong Learning Committee (GILL) combining this year’s 'Current Issues in General Insurance' (CIGI) and 'Technical Issues in General Insurance' (TIGI) conferences into a virtual webinar series over 19 – 25 May that will be available to watch online globally.
This is a free webinar on the consultation on changes to the Practising Certificates (PC) Scheme.
The world is changing. The fourth industrial revolution, globalisation and the COVID-19 pandemic are up-ending traditional social and business norms around the world; changes that were once predictable and steady are now faster and more profound.
This paper explores the use of long-term stochastic modelling for risk management. Life insurance is a long-term business and carries with it long-term risks, yet a lot of current actuarial risk management is focused on short-term modelling approaches.
Tools like python/R are being heavily used to provide end-to-end analytical solutions for risk management. They help to set up a framework/platform to collect risk data and work out stochastic analytics to provide insights into the risks faced by a firm, be it in any sector.
In this webinar, two presentations present the research from the Health and Care practice area on two key issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic; Scott Reid will share the research on unemployment modelling and John Ng will discuss the mortality impact of vaccination.
The webinar will look at several aspects of intergenerational fairness and our panel of experts will challenge you, society, taxpayers and generations X, Y and Z on key aspects of DB v DC pensions, public v private sector pensions, state benefits and key aspects of sustainability.
Welcome to the programme for our 2nd Virtual Pensions Conference. This year's conference features 11 webinars offering members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the pension industry. There will also be opportunity to ask questions and contribute to the discussion.
This is a free webinar on the consultation on changes to the Practising Certificates (PC) Scheme.