You are here

Mortality projections

  • The Mortality Projections Committee is consulting on proposed changes to the Core parameterisation for CMI_2023. CMI Working Paper 183 describes the proposals and seeks feedback from users of the Model by 11 March 2024. A companion paper, Working Paper 184 provides an overview of all of the CMI Model parameters.
  • Working Paper 180 was published in October 2023. The paper contains analysis of excess mortality for 24 international territories using data from the Human Mortality Database’s short-term mortality fluctuations dataset. This paper is publicly available. 
  • The Mortality Projections Committee has published the results of the third annual CMI Model benchmarking survey in CMI Working Paper 179.
  • CMI_2022 was published in June 2023, accompanied by CMI Working Paper 177.  The Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2022. You must be an Authorised User to access the Model and the accompanying documents.
     
  • A separate frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2022 has also been issued. 
     
  • The Mortality Projections Committee hosted a meeting on 19 July 2023, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), discussing the outlook for future mortality improvements. The presentation slides can be accessed here
     
  • Working Paper 175 was published in May 2023. The paper contains analysis of historical mortality improvements and information on projecting mortality improvements to assist Subscribers in setting the projection paramaters in the CMI Mortality Projections Model. This paper is available to Authorised Users only.
     
  • Working Paper 171 was published in March 2023. It contains a number of analyses that are intended to be helpful to users of the CMI Model, including analysis of mortality in 2020-2023 in the general population and CMI datasets, analysis of monthly mortality in England by Index of Multiple Deprivation, mortality improvements in CMI datasets and by Index of Multiple Deprivation and analysis of monthly mortality in England by cause of death in 2001 to 2021.
     
  • The Mortality Projections Committee held a webinar on 21 February 2023 which covered: recent mortality experience in the general population; the CMI_2022 consultation; and other recent outputs from the Committee. The webinar was presented by Cobus Daneel (Chair of Mortality Projections Committee) and Piero Cocevar (Committee member of the Mortality Projections Committee). Details on how to view a recording of the webinar are contained within this downloadable PDF (124, KB).  You must be an Authorised User to view this download.
  • Working Paper 166 was published in December 2022. It compares the results of fitting UK and US mortality projections models to data for England & Wales and the US.
     
  • Updated beta versions of the CMI_2019, CMI_2020 and CMI_2021 software were released in November 2022 so that the “live link” to the Human Mortality Database (HMD) will work after changes to the HMD website. The “beta” status reflects the possibility that the live link will not work for all users, depending on their IT setups.
  • We are publishing frequent updates to our mortality monitor during the coronavirus pandemic. 

Annuitant mortality

  • Working Paper 186 was published in February 2024. This paper describes the experience of pension annuities in payment in 2022. The paper, accompanying spreadsheets and interactive data visualisation are available to Authorised Users only. The Annuities Committee will be hosting a webinar on 22 March 2024, to provide an overview of the analysis presented in Working Paper 186. More information, including how to register can be found on our website.
     
  • Working Paper 178 was published in September 2023. This paper describes the experience of pension annuities in payment in 2022. The paper, accompanying chart values spreadsheet and an interactive data visualisation are available to Authorised Users only. 
  • Working Paper 172 was published in March 2023. This paper describes the experience of pension annuities in payment in 2021. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only. The Annuities Committee hosted a webinar on 31 March 2023. This webinar gave an overview of the analysis presented in Working Paper 172. The webinar was presented by Jamie Funnell (Chair of Annuities Committee) and Vicky Webb (Member of Annuities Committee). A recording of the webinar is now available to Authorised Users only.
  • Analysis of enhanced individual pension annuities in payment has been published in Working Paper 155 (for 2011-2019 and to mid-2020, published in October 2021) as well as an analysis of combined standard and enhanced individual pension annuitants, in Working Paper 165 (for 2015-2019, published in December 2022).  The papers and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.
  • Working Paper 164 was published in October 2022. This paper describes the mortality and long-term care exit experience of equity release mortgage holders over the period 2016-2019 and 2020. Summary results and datasheets are available as accompanying spreadsheets. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.  The Committee hosted a webinar on 4 November 2022, covering the analysis presented in Working Paper 164. A recording of the webinar is available to view for Authorised Users only.
  • Working Paper 138 was published in September 2020. This paper describes analysis of data by socio-economic status in the subset of the 2015-2018 pension annuities in payment dataset that included indicators based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), and region. A Tableau Workbook and accompanying dataset are released alongside the paper. The paper and accompanying files are available to Authorised Users only. 
  • Working Paper 134 was published in July 2020. This paper was issued alongside the final '16' Series pension annuities in payment mortality tables. The paper and spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only. A briefing note on the tables is publicly-available
  • Working Paper 133 was published in June 2020. This paper describes the experience of life annuities over the period 2013 to 2018. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.

Assurances (critical illness and mortality)

  • Working Paper 182 was published in January 2024. This paper describes further analysis into the results for mortality and accelerated critical illness term assurances sold on standard rates, with specific focus on the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on experience. The paper considers some novel analyses, not performed on the CMI term assurance dataset before. It also includes thoughts on the considerations that insurers may have to make when setting their bases for term assurance products in the post-pandemic period. An accompanying spreadsheet shows chart values. The paper and accompanying spreadsheet are available to Authorised Users only.
  • Working Paper 176 was published in June 2023. This paper describes the experience of term assurances in 2021 compared with updated 2020 experience and the combined 2016-2019 period against the “16” Series tables. It also includes an analysis of monthly experience during 2019, 2020 and 2021. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only. An updated version of this paper was published in July 2023, which contains revised commentary on some of the results. 
  • Working Paper 170 was published in February 2023. This paper investigates the experience of underwritten whole of life assurance policies for the years 2015 to 2019. An accompanying spreadsheet shows summary results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.
  • Working Paper 167 was published in January 2023. This paper investigates the experience of accelerated critical illness term assurance policies for the years 2017 to 2020. The purpose of this paper is to assess the causes of claim in 2020, when term assurance claims were substantially affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, compared with prior years. An interactive data visualisation has been published to allow exploration of selected analyses. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only..
  • The Assurance Committee has added clarification regarding the format of the rates in the spreadsheets containing the “08” and “16” Series term assurance tables. The rates themselves are unchanged from the previous versions. Please see Working Paper 94 and Working Paper 154 for the updated spreadsheets.

COVID-19 Working Party

  • The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in mortality (and likely morbidity) experience in the general population in 2020. In response to this, the COVID-19 Working Party was set up in July 2020 to investigate the implications of COVID-19 on the CMI and to produce a consistent methodology that could be adopted by the CMI investigation committees. It is also hoped that any methodology developed will be useful to CMI Subscribers for their own internal analyses.
     
  • Working Paper 139 describes considerations for setting base and trend mortality and morbidity best estimate assumptions in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
     
  • The paper included a consultation which has now closed. The Working Party is considering the content and timing of its next working paper, which may be published in the second half of 2021.

Income protection

  • Working Paper 156 was published in November 2021. In July 2021, the CMI Income Protection Committee conducted a survey, seeking views from CMI-subscribing insurers and reinsurers on the impact of COVID-19 on Income Protection business and experience, and their thoughts on the future. This paper contains an anonymised summary of the qualitative responses to the survey. The paper is available to Authorised Users only. 

  • The Committee hosted a webinar in July 2021, which gave an overview of recent changes in analysis approach and discussed the adjustments to the IP11 claim inceptions graduations. It also provided an overview of the Committee’s current work and ran a number of polls to gather information from attendees on the impact of COVID-19 on IP business. A recording of the webinar is now available to Authorised Users only.

  • Working Paper 149 was published in April 2021. This paper covers changes to the analysis methodology for the CMI Income Protection Investigation and the impact of issues discovered in the data underlying the 2011-2016 claim inceptions experience and the “IP11” claim inception rates. The paper is available to Authorised Users only.

  • Working Paper 136 was originally released in September 2020. This paper summarises feedback on the proposed “IP11” claim inception and termination rates, released for consultation in April 2020 and finalises these rates, including a brief recap on their derivation and resulting models. In April 2021, Working Paper 136 was reissued with a “health warning”, together with a spreadsheet of indicative adjustments to the claim inception rates, following the discovery of underlying data issues. The paper is available to Authorised Users only. A briefing note on the rates is publicly-available.

  • An updated version of the CMI Income Protection Rate Table Tool was originally released in October 2020. Version 1.2 updates the CMI IP Tool to incorporate the “IP11” claim inception and termination rates. The IP Tool was reissued in April 2021 with a “health warning” following the discovery of past data issues affecting the “IP11” claim inception rates. A spreadsheet of indicative adjustments to the rates is available alongside Working Paper 136. The CMI IP Tool and accompanying user guide are available to Authorised Users only.

  • Individual IP “All offices” experience results for the period 2011-2016 were released in September 2019 alongside Working Paper 124. The paper was reissued in April 2021 with a “health warning” following the discovery of data issues affecting the claim inceptions experience. A summary of the impact is included in Working Paper 149. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.

Self-administered pension schemes (SAPS) mortality

  • Working Paper 185  was published in February 2024. The working paper, in conjunction with Working Paper 181, describes the final “S4” Series mortality tables. Working Paper 181 described the dataset, graduation methods, and proposed S4 tables in detail. Working Paper 185 summarises feedback on the Working Paper 181 consultation, discusses the Committee’s response to the feedback, and describes one planned change to the proposed tables. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.
     
  • Working Paper 169 was published in February 2023. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of date received by 30 June 2022, covering the period 2014 to 2021. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.
     
  • The Mortality Projections and SAPS committees hosted a joint webinar on 8 December 2021. This webinar covered: recent mortality experience in the SAPS dataset and the general population; the CMI Model benchmarking survey; the MPC 2021 interim update paper; plans for CMI_2021; and intial thoughts on possible "S4" Series pensioner mortality tables. The webinar was presented by Cobus Daneel (Chair of Mortality Projections Committee) and Matthew Fletcher (Chair of SAPS Committee). A recording of the webinar is now available to view for Authorised Users only.
     
  • Working Paper 146 was published in February 2021. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience by region and Index of Multiple Deprivation over the period 2012 to 2019. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.
     
  • Working Paper 121 was published in May 2019. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data by industry classification over the period 2010 to 2017. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.
  • The “S3” Series mortality tables were issued in December 2018 alongside Working Paper 113. The working paper summarises feedback on the consultation and describes the final tables. You must be an Authorised User to access the paper and associated outputs. 

  • A webinar that explains the background to the S3 tables is now available to IFoA members. View the webinar

  • A separate briefing note on the “S3” Series mortality tables has also been issued. This is aimed at those receiving advice based on the tables, such as pension scheme trustees, and is publicly available.

Unisex mortality rates

The CMI has produced a set of unisex mortality rates. These rates will assist actuaries who are:

  • producing Statutory Money Purchase Illustrations in accordance with the FRC’s Actuarial Standard Technical Memorandum TM1.

  • undertaking calculations in connection with the estimated cost of future pension annuities for Appropriate Pension Transfer Analysis and Transfer Value Comparators, as set out in COBS 19.1 and COBS 19 Annex 4C of the FCA Sourcebook.

  • preparing projections, including for Key Features Illustrations, in accordance with COBS 13 Annex 2 of the FCA Sourcebook.

  • undertaking redress calculations for non-compliant pension transfer advice in accordance with FG17/9 or, from 1 April 2023, DISP App 4.

The set was updated in December 2022 to include values applicable for the year commencing 6 April 2023

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

Events calendar

No results found.