Mortality projections

  • The Q2 2019 mortality monitor (dated July 2019) is now available. The next update, for Q3 2019, is expected towards the end of October 2019.

  • CMI_2018 was published in March 2019, accompanied by CMI Working Paper 119. The Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2018 and used a lower default value of the period smoothing parameter, Sĸ, following consultation . You must be an Authorised User to access the Model and the accompanying documents.
     
  • An updated version of the CMI_2018 software, v02, was released in April 2019 to correct a potential error that could have affected users in a specific circumstance, described on the Working Paper 119 webpage.
     
  • A separate Briefing note on CMI_2018 has also been issued. This is aimed at those receiving advice based on the Model, such as pension scheme trustees and Non-Executive Directors of insurance companies and is publicly available.
     
  • Cobus Daneel has been appointed Chair of the Committee, to succeed Tim Gordon.  
     
  • The Committee hosted a meeting at Staple Inn on 2 April 2019, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss recent mortality experience and the prospects for future mortality improvements. The presentation, including an audio recording, is available from the SIAS website.
     
  • Working Paper 115 was published in December 2018. It contains a number of analyses that are intended to be helpful to users of the CMI Model. This paper is available to Authorised Users only. An updated version of Working Paper 115 was issued in March 2019 to correct errors in Section 4.3.

Annuitant mortality

  • Working Paper 117 was published in January 2019. This paper describes the experience of pension annuities in payment over the period 2011 to 2016. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only. An updated version of Working Paper 117 was issued in August 2019 to correct errors in Tables 6.1 and 6.2.
     
  • Whilst processing the data underlying Working Paper 117, we received resubmissions of data covering the years 2011-2014 data from several insurers. This has created some uncertainty around the dataset underlying both Working Paper 101 and Working Paper 112. We have reissued these papers with a prominent “health warning” to see Working Paper 117 before using either of these papers.

Assurances (critical illness and mortality)

  • Working Paper 123 was published in July 2019. This paper describes the experience of term assurances in the years 2011 to 2016. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.
     
  • The Committee is now seeking term assurances data to 2018 by 30 September. A summary of data requirements is available on the CMI data page.
     
  • The Committee is considering analysis of mortality and persistency of Whole of life policies (both Underwritten and “Guaranteed acceptance”) for the years 2011-2018. This document sets out more details; we are seeking responses by 5 September 2019.
     

  • Alongside Working Paper 108, a survey was sent to data contributors and other stakeholders seeking their views on data submissions and the prioritisation of future work. The Assurances Committee has considered responses to the survey and produced a response document, which outlines responses to the survey and intended future work.
     
  • Working Paper 110 was published in October 2018. This paper is aimed at actuaries involved in the pricing and financial management of term assurances and whole of life policies. It sets out areas that should be considered when using the CMI Mortality Projections Model and its core assumptions in the context of protection portfolios. We would welcome feedback, preferably by 31 December 2018, to help us determine whether we undertake further work in this area.  The paper is available to Authorised Users only.

Income protection

  • The “IP06” claim inception rates were issued in March 2019 alongside Working Paper 120. The working paper summarises feedback on the consultation and describes the final tables. You must be an Authorised User to access the paper and associated outputs.

  • Individual IP “All offices” experience results for the 2007-2010 quadrennium were released in March 2017 alongside Working Paper 96. The working paper describes the experience and updates some of the analysis by cause of sickness contained in Working Paper 72. A database of individual IP experience by cause of sickness, spanning 1991-2010, was also released. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to authorised users only. An executive summary of the paper is available to all. 
     
  • Supplementary analyses to those included in Working Paper 96 were released in Working Paper 102 in August 2017. These consider IP experience in 2003-2010 by benefit amount and policy duration, two factors not included in regular analyses. The paper is available to authorised users only. An executive summary of the paper is available to all.

Self-administered pension schemes (SAPS) mortality

  • Working Paper 121 was published in May 2019. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data by industry classification over the period 2010 to 2017. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.

  • Working Paper 118 was published in February 2019. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data received by 30 June 2018, covering the period 2010 to 2017. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.

  • The “S3” Series mortality tables were issued in December 2018 alongside Working Paper 113. The working paper summarises feedback on the consultation and describes the final tables. You must be an Authorised User to access the paper and associated outputs. 

  • A webinar that explains the background to the S3 tables is now available to IFoA members. View the webinar

  • A separate briefing note on the “S3” Series mortality tables has also been issued. This is aimed at those receiving advice based on the tables, such as pension scheme trustees, and is publicly available.

  • Working Paper 107 was published in June 2018. The working paper contains a consultation on the proposed graduations of the “S3” Series mortality tables. You must be an authorised user to access this paper.

High Age Mortality

  • The final report of the High Age Mortality Working Party, Working Paper 122, was published in June 2019. The paper reports on how CMI investigation committees have used the HAMWP’s method for extending mortality graduations to high ages; and analysis of data collected from large self-administered pension schemes. Following the publication of this paper, the Working Party has now closed.

  • Working Paper 106 was published in June 2018. The working paper describes methods for, and analyses the results of determining populations at high ages, and extending graduating mortality rates to high ages. This paper has been made publicly available.

  • Supplementary material to CMI Working Paper 100 was published in October 2017. Following requests from Subscribers, a supplementary note has been issued detailing the framework for extending graduated mortality rates to higher ages together with a spreadsheet containing illustrative mortality rates from applying the method to selected tables from the CMI’s “08” Series and “S2” Series. The note is publicly-available but the spreadsheet is only available to authorised users.
     
  • Working Paper 100 was published in June 2017. The working paper illustrates alternative methods of estimating population exposures at high ages, presents analysis of mortality at the oldest ages and describes a framework for setting mortality rates at high ages for portfolio graduations. This paper has been made publicly available
     
  • Working Paper 85 was published in October 2015. The Working Paper presents the initial findings of the High Age Mortality Working Party. The Working Party was established to investigate issues relating to the estimation of mortality at very high ages. Alongside the report, the CMI is also releasing a reading list for users who would like to read more around this issue. The paper and reading list are publicly available.

Unisex mortality rates

The CMI has produced a set of unisex mortality rates that are intended for:

  • actuaries undertaking Transfer Value Analysis in accordance with COBS 19.1 of the FCA Sourcebook
  • actuaries preparing projections for Key Features Illustrations in accordance with COBS 13 Annex 2 of the FCA Sourcebook, and
  • actuaries producing Statutory Money Purchase Illustrations in accordance with the FRC's Actuarial Standards Technical Memorandum TM1. 

Note that an updated set of rates was issued in December 2018 including values applicable for the year commencing 6 April 2019.

Related documents

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

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Events calendar

  • IFoA & PRI Webinar: TCFD – leaders and challenges

    Online webinar
    2 September 2019

    Spaces available

    In collaboration with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the Principles of Responsible Investment is delighted to host this webinar discussing the response to the TCFD’s recommendations two years on from their publication. The webinar will feature new analysis of the 591 investors representing $45 trillion who responded to PRI’s 2019 climate indicators, insights from the past Chair of the IFoA’s Resource and Environment Board as well as an investor case study of implementation in practice from Aviva. 

  • SIAS Event: Climate Zero to Climate Hero

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    3 September 2019

    Spaces available

    An introductory session to help you get ahead with climate change.

    • Science, terminology and initiatives: handy facts to keep in your back pocket 
    • Getting your point across: how to influence people and avoid common traps and pitfalls
    • Taking action: what are actuaries expected to do...and what are we actually doing?
  • KSS event – The Regulatory Perspective

    Deloitte Saltire Court 20 Castle Terrace Edinburgh EH1 2EG
    5 September 2019

    Spaces available

    This KSS talk, presented by the FCA Head of Department in Scotland, will focus on the following 3 main areas:

    • FCA business plan priorities
    • The future of regulation
    • FCA Engagement in Scotland
  • Professional Skills Training session (Jointly held with China Life)

    China Life Insurance, Beijing •  China Life Shanghai Office • China Life Shenzhen Office  
    6 September 2019

    Spaces available

    Friday, 6 September, Beijing Local Time (CST) 14.00-16.30; British Summer Time (BST) 07.00-9.30

    The IFoA Beijing Office and China Life are pleased to be co-hosting a Professional Skills Training (PST) session in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen on Friday, 6 September. Wen Li (FIA), the IFoA Lead Representative in China and East Asia, will lead the PST presentation and discussion on ‘Getting it right!’.

    The main venue will be in Beijing. Members in Shanghai and Shenzhen can join the interaction with Beijing via video conference at China Life’s regional venues. (see full details below)

  • GIRO Conference 2019

    EICC, The Exchange, 150 Morrison St, Edinburgh EH3 8EE
    24-26 September 2019
    Spaces available

    GIRO is attended annually by over 800 delegates and speakers who are keen to discuss key topics such as Pricing, Reserving, Modelling and the future of the insurance industry. GIRO 2018 was a huge success and we have opened bookings early for what we hope will be another brilliant conference at the EICC in Edinburgh this year. 

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  • Chief Actuaries and Senior Life Actuaries Workshop 2019

    Staple Inn Hall High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    2 October 2019

    Spaces available

    This workshop, now in its sixth year, is aimed at senior actuaries working in life insurance - predominantly Chief Actuaries, but also Reviewing Actuaries and others working in risk and financial reporting. It will provide seven hours of relevant CPD.

  • The Future of the Actuarial Profession

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    3 October 2019

    Fully booked.

     

    Three actuaries – and CEOs – discuss their views on how the business world is changing and what that might mean for actuaries in the future.

  • Spaces available

    Have you ever thought about working in wider fields? Would you like to play a role in the fight against climate change to make the planet better? 

    It can be difficult to do this - but seeing an example you can follow can make it more realistic. In this ‘green’ case study a template is outlined to show how actuaries can apply their skills more broadly - and in doing so, to make a difference.

  • RSS/IFoA Data Science Ethics: the role of practitioners

    Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol St, London EC1Y 8LX
    7 October 2019

    Spaces available

    The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the Royal Statistical Society have worked together to develop joint ethics guidance on data science. This is the culmination of an 18 month programme of practitioner led work. 
     
    Join us for the launch of this new guidance, with a high-level panel discussion which will explore the role of data science practitioners and professional bodies in data ethics. 

  • Sessional Meeting - Autonomous Vehicles and impacts on the wider insurance industry

    Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ         
    28 October 2019

    Spaces available

    The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries is running a sessional meeting on autonomous vehicles on 28th October.  The session will showcase the work of the IFoA “Autonomous Vehicles” working party alongside a number of expert external presenters. 

  • ARC Event: Beyond Proportional Hazards

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    30 October 2019

    Spaces available

    ARC Event: Beyond Proportional Hazards: Statistical methods for assessment of the impact of medical advances and health interventions on longevity and population projections.

    This workshop is being delivered by the Actuarial Research Centre’s (ARC) ‘Big Health and Actuarial Data’ Research Programme.

  • Hot Topics in Health and Care: Networking and Drinks

    Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, London WC1V 6DR
    4 November 2019

    Spaces available

    This evening will feature two new cases studies that highlight the implications for insurers of issues impacting on health and mortality for life, pensions, and health and care products; Impactability modelling: a worked example in Type II diabetes presented by Josephine Robertson, and Seasonal Mortality in England and Wales 1993-2016 presented by Mary Hall, Dublin City University.

  • Autumn Pension Seminar

    Grand Connaught Rooms, 61-65 Great Queen St, Holborn, London WC2B 5DA
    13 November 2019

    Spaces available

    Join us for this brand new seminar that brings together our Current Issues in Pensions, Pensions and the Law, and Investment for Pension Actuaries events. The seminar builds on the IFoA’s Annual Pension Conference with sessions covering CDC, TPR’s code of practice, investments, legal updates and Professional Skills Training with a focus on interactive discussion throughout.

    • KSS event: How is Scotland’s population changing and what are the implications?

      Barnett Waddingham, 163 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2JJ
      14 November 2019

      Spaces available

      The National Records of Scotland (NRS) collects, preserves and produces information about Scotland's people and history to inform current and future generations - work that underpins the fabric of Scottish society and tells the story of our nation. This KSS talk will explore the following and other areas impacting Scotland’s changing population, and assess the potential implications of the changes:

      • population statistics
      • life expectancy
      • changes in age structure
      • birth and death rates, including causes of death statistics.
    • Life Conference 2019

      The Convention Centre Dublin, Spencer Dock, North Wall Quay, Dublin 1
      20-22 November 2019
      Spaces available

      The Life Conference is the premier event for professionals interested in life insurance.  Offering a wide range of workshops and plenary sessions it’s the perfect opportunity to discover what’s hot and current in life insurance ensuring you get up to date on the latest thinking and innovation whilst meeting and exchanging ideas with a broad range of professionals.

    • Autumn Lecture 2019, London - Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP

      Lincoln's Inn The Treasury Office, London WC2A 3TL
      2 December 2019

      Fully booked.

      The IFoA is pleased to announce that this year’s Autumn Lecture will feature the Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP as its guest speaker.  Nicky has previously served as Financial Secretary to the Treasury and Minister for Women. She now chairs the Treasury Select Committee whose remit is to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of HM Treasury, along with all of its agencies and associated bodies.

    • Autumn Lecture 2019: Live Streaming

      Webinar 
      2 December 2019

      Spaces available

      Watch the live stream of this year's Autumn Lecture with guest speaker Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP. 

    • Behavioural Finance Research Launch- 14 January 2020

      Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London WC1V 6DR
      14 January 2020

      Spaces available

      We are delighted to announce the launch of the findings from our ARC funded Behavioural Finance research with a special evening event at Staple Inn on Tuesday14th January 2020. Entitled Behavioural Aspects of Institutional Investment Decision-Making, this research programme is being delivered by City, University of London, Leeds University Business School and Ipsos.