- CMI_2018 was published in March 2019, accompanied by CMI Working Paper 119. The Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2018 and used a lower default value of the period smoothing parameter, Sĸ, following consultation . You must be an Authorised User to access the Model and the accompanying documents.
- An updated version of the CMI_2018 software, v02, was released in April 2019 to correct a potential error that could have affected users in a specific circumstance, described on the Working Paper 119 webpage.
- A separate Briefing note on CMI_2018 has also been issued. This is aimed at those receiving advice based on the Model, such as pension scheme trustees and Non-Executive Directors of insurance companies and is publicly available.
- Cobus Daneel has been appointed Chair of the Committee, to succeed Tim Gordon.
- The Committee hosted a meeting at Staple Inn on 2 April 2019, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss recent mortality experience and the prospects for future mortality improvements. The presentation, including an audio recording, is available from the SIAS website.
- The Q1 2019 mortality monitor (dated April 2019) is now available. Following consultation, we have retained the method proposed in CMI Working Paper 111, but have extended our description and charts of results. The next update, for Q2 2019, is expected towards the end of July 2019.
- Working Paper 115 was published in December 2018. It contains a number of analyses that are intended to be helpful to users of the CMI Model. This paper is available to Authorised Users only. An updated version of Working Paper 115 was issued in March 2019 to correct errors in Section 4.3.
- Working Paper 117 was published in January 2019. This paper describes the experience of pension annuities in payment over the period 2011 to 2016. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.
- The results originally issued alongside Working Paper 117 included an allowance for improvements (as described in Section 3.4 of the paper). These were replaced on 14 February to improve the clarity of the description (the results themselves are unchanged) and additional results without improvements were also released.
- Whilst processing the data underlying Working Paper 117, we received resubmissions of data covering the years 2011-2014 data from several insurers. This has created some uncertainty around the dataset underlying both Working Paper 101 and Working Paper 112. We have reissued these papers with a prominent “health warning” to see Working Paper 117 before using either of these papers.
Assurances (critical illness and mortality)
- Alongside Working Paper 108, a survey was sent to data contributors and other stakeholders seeking their views on data submissions and the prioritisation of future work. The Assurances Committee has considered responses to the survey and produced a response document, which outlines responses to the survey and intended future work.
- Working Paper 110 was published in October 2018. This paper is aimed at actuaries involved in the pricing and financial management of term assurances and whole of life policies. It sets out areas that should be considered when using the CMI Mortality Projections Model and its core assumptions in the context of protection portfolios. We would welcome feedback, preferably by 31 December 2018, to help us determine whether we undertake further work in this area. The paper is available to Authorised Users only.
- Working Paper 108 was published in June 2018. This paper describes the experience of term assurances in the years 2011 to 2015. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.
- These results are described as “interim” as the Committee is keen to receive further term assurances data for 2011-2017 to allow final "all offices" results to be produced. A brief summary of data requirements is available on the CMI data page.
The “IP06” claim inception rates were issued in March 2019 alongside Working Paper 120. The working paper summarises feedback on the consultation and describes the final tables. You must be an Authorised User to access the paper and associated outputs.
- Individual IP “All offices” experience results for the 2007-2010 quadrennium were released in March 2017 alongside Working Paper 96. The working paper describes the experience and updates some of the analysis by cause of sickness contained in Working Paper 72. A database of individual IP experience by cause of sickness, spanning 1991-2010, was also released. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to authorised users only. An executive summary of the paper is available to all.
- Supplementary analyses to those included in Working Paper 96 were released in Working Paper 102 in August 2017. These consider IP experience in 2003-2010 by benefit amount and policy duration, two factors not included in regular analyses. The paper is available to authorised users only. An executive summary of the paper is available to all.
Self-administered pension schemes (SAPS) mortality
Working Paper 121 was published in May 2019. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data by industry classification over the period 2010 to 2017. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.
Working Paper 118 was published in February 2019. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data received by 30 June 2018, covering the period 2010 to 2017. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.
The “S3” Series mortality tables were issued in December 2018 alongside Working Paper 113. The working paper summarises feedback on the consultation and describes the final tables. You must be an Authorised User to access the paper and associated outputs.
A webinar that explains the background to the S3 tables is now available to IFoA members. View the webinar
A separate briefing note on the “S3” Series mortality tables has also been issued. This is aimed at those receiving advice based on the tables, such as pension scheme trustees, and is publicly available.
Working Paper 107 was published in June 2018. The working paper contains a consultation on the proposed graduations of the “S3” Series mortality tables. You must be an authorised user to access this paper.
High Age Mortality
Working Paper 106 was published in June 2018. The working paper describes methods for, and analyses the results of determining populations at high ages, and extending graduating mortality rates to high ages. This paper has been made publicly available.
- Supplementary material to CMI Working Paper 100 was published in October 2017. Following requests from Subscribers, a supplementary note has been issued detailing the framework for extending graduated mortality rates to higher ages together with a spreadsheet containing illustrative mortality rates from applying the method to selected tables from the CMI’s “08” Series and “S2” Series. The note is publicly-available but the spreadsheet is only available to authorised users.
- Working Paper 100 was published in June 2017. The working paper illustrates alternative methods of estimating population exposures at high ages, presents analysis of mortality at the oldest ages and describes a framework for setting mortality rates at high ages for portfolio graduations. This paper has been made publicly available
- Working Paper 85 was published in October 2015. The Working Paper presents the initial findings of the High Age Mortality Working Party. The Working Party was established to investigate issues relating to the estimation of mortality at very high ages. Alongside the report, the CMI is also releasing a reading list for users who would like to read more around this issue. The paper and reading list are publicly available.
Unisex mortality rates
The CMI has produced a set of unisex mortality rates that are intended for:
- actuaries undertaking Transfer Value Analysis in accordance with COBS 19.1 of the FCA Sourcebook
- actuaries preparing projections for Key Features Illustrations in accordance with COBS 13 Annex 2 of the FCA Sourcebook, and
- actuaries producing Statutory Money Purchase Illustrations in accordance with the FRC's Actuarial Standards Technical Memorandum TM1.
Note that an updated set of rates was issued in December 2018 including values applicable for the year commencing 6 April 2019.
- 28 November 2016
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The Institute for Financial and Actuarial Mathematics (IFAM) at the University of Liverpool is pleased to host the 2019 Actuarial Teachers’ and Researchers’ Conference from 27-28 June 2019. This annual two-day event has been running annually now for many years, each time hosted by a different university, and provides all those interested in actuarial research and education a great opportunity to share their ideas and catch up on the latest developments.
The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and Actuarial Society of Malaysia (ASM) are organising a joint Professional Skills Training (PST) in Kuala Lumpur. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Life, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
Presented by Louise Pryor
Air pollution has gained increasing attention lately. Nicola Oliver, head of longevity and mortality research for Medical Intelligence, will discuss not only the impacts of air pollution on health and life expectancy but also how as an industry we should be addressing it.
The actuarial profession has much to offer the world of banking. In this webinar actuaries with experience in various fields of banking will talk about the opportunities there are in banking; describing the actuarial aspects of the work they do as well as other roles within their area of banking.
Towards the end of June, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) is expected to publish an Exposure Draft (ED) of limited changes to its insurance contracts standard IFRS 17, effective date 2022. To help IFoA members, the IFoA’s cross-practice Financial Reporting Group (FRG) is hosting an event at Staple Inn covering these developments.
For more information on the FRG please visit this webpage.
Presenter: Rahul Verma
Presenter Matt Modisett
This KSS talk, presented by the FCA Head of Department in Scotland, will focus on the following 3 main areas:
- FCA business plan priorities
- The future of regulation
- FCA Engagement in Scotland
For life insurers in the UK, the risk margin is one of the most controversial aspects of the Solvency II regime. Following its implementation, the risk margin came under considerable criticism for being too large and too sensitive to interest rate movements. These criticisms are particularly valid for annuity business – such business is of great significance to the national system for retirement provision. This criticism has led to political interest, and the risk margin was a major element of the Treasury Committee inquiry into Solvency II.
GIRO is attended annually by over 800 delegates and speakers who are keen to discuss key topics such as Pricing, Reserving, Modelling and the future of the insurance industry. GIRO 2018 was a huge success and we have opened bookings early for what we hope will be another brilliant conference at the EICC in Edinburgh this year.
Presenter Jon Spain
The Life Conference is the premier event for professionals interested in life insurance. Offering a wide range of workshops and plenary sessions it’s the perfect opportunity to discover what’s hot and current in life insurance ensuring you get up to date on the latest thinking and innovation whilst meeting and exchanging ideas with a broad range of professionals.
The IFoA is pleased to announce that this year’s Autumn Lecture will feature the Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP as its guest speaker. Nicky has previously served as Financial Secretary to the Treasury and Minister for Women. She now chairs the Treasury Select Committee whose remit is to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of HM Treasury, along with all of its agencies and associated bodies.