Mortality projections

  • CMI_2018 was published in March 2019, accompanied by CMI Working Paper 119. The Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2018 and used a lower default value of the period smoothing parameter, Sĸ, following consultation . You must be an Authorised User to access the Model and the accompanying documents.
     
  • An updated version of the CMI_2018 software, v02, was released in April 2019 to correct a potential error that could have affected users in a specific circumstance, described on the Working Paper 119 webpage.
     
  • A separate Briefing note on CMI_2018 has also been issued. This is aimed at those receiving advice based on the Model, such as pension scheme trustees and Non-Executive Directors of insurance companies and is publicly available.
     
  • Cobus Daneel has been appointed Chair of the Committee, to succeed Tim Gordon.  
     
  • The Committee hosted a meeting at Staple Inn on 2 April 2019, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss recent mortality experience and the prospects for future mortality improvements. The presentation, including an audio recording, is available from the SIAS website.
     
  • The Q4 2018 mortality monitor (dated January 2019) is now available. Following consultation, we have retained the method proposed in CMI Working Paper 111, but have extended our description and charts of results. The next update, for Q1 2019, is expected towards the end of April 2019.
     
  • Working Paper 115 was published in December 2018. It contains a number of analyses that are intended to be helpful to users of the CMI Model. This paper is available to Authorised Users only. An updated version of Working Paper 115 was issued in March 2019 to correct errors in Section 4.3.

Annuitant mortality

  • Working Paper 117 was published in January 2019. This paper describes the experience of pension annuities in payment over the period 2011 to 2016. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.
     
  • The results originally issued alongside Working Paper 117 included an allowance for improvements (as described in Section 3.4 of the paper). These were replaced on 14 February to improve the clarity of the description (the results themselves are unchanged) and additional results without improvements were also released.
     
  • Whilst processing the data underlying Working Paper 117, we received resubmissions of data covering the years 2011-2014 data from several insurers. This has created some uncertainty around the dataset underlying both Working Paper 101 and Working Paper 112. We have reissued these papers with a prominent “health warning” to see Working Paper 117 before using either of these papers.

Assurances (critical illness and mortality)

  • Alongside Working Paper 108, a survey was sent to data contributors and other stakeholders seeking their views on data submissions and the prioritisation of future work. The Assurances Committee has considered responses to the survey and produced a response document, which outlines responses to the survey and intended future work.
     
  • Working Paper 110 was published in October 2018. This paper is aimed at actuaries involved in the pricing and financial management of term assurances and whole of life policies. It sets out areas that should be considered when using the CMI Mortality Projections Model and its core assumptions in the context of protection portfolios. We would welcome feedback, preferably by 31 December 2018, to help us determine whether we undertake further work in this area.  The paper is available to Authorised Users only.
     
  • Working Paper 108 was published in June 2018. This paper describes the experience of term assurances in the years 2011 to 2015. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.
     
  • These results are described as “interim” as the Committee is keen to receive further term assurances data for 2011-2017 to allow final "all offices" results to be produced. A brief summary of data requirements is available on the CMI data page.

Income protection

  • The “IP06” claim inception rates were issued in March 2019 alongside Working Paper 120. The working paper summarises feedback on the consultation and describes the final tables. You must be an Authorised User to access the paper and associated outputs.

  • Individual IP “All offices” experience results for the 2007-2010 quadrennium were released in March 2017 alongside Working Paper 96. The working paper describes the experience and updates some of the analysis by cause of sickness contained in Working Paper 72. A database of individual IP experience by cause of sickness, spanning 1991-2010, was also released. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to authorised users only. An executive summary of the paper is available to all. 
     
  • Supplementary analyses to those included in Working Paper 96 were released in Working Paper 102 in August 2017. These consider IP experience in 2003-2010 by benefit amount and policy duration, two factors not included in regular analyses. The paper is available to authorised users only. An executive summary of the paper is available to all.

Self-administered pension schemes (SAPS) mortality

  • Working Paper 118 was published in February 2019. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data received by 30 June 2018, covering the period 2010 to 2017. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.

  • The “S3” Series mortality tables were issued in December 2018 alongside Working Paper 113. The working paper summarises feedback on the consultation and describes the final tables. You must be an Authorised User to access the paper and associated outputs. 

  • A webinar that explains the background to the S3 tables is now available to IFoA members. View the webinar

  • A separate briefing note on the “S3” Series mortality tables has also been issued. This is aimed at those receiving advice based on the tables, such as pension scheme trustees, and is publicly available.

  • Working Paper 107 was published in June 2018. The working paper contains a consultation on the proposed graduations of the “S3” Series mortality tables. You must be an authorised user to access this paper.

  • Working Paper 86 was published in November 2015. This paper presents an investigation into the mortality experience by industry classification of pensioners of self-administered pension schemes covering the period 2006 to 2013.You must be an authorised user to access this paper.

High Age Mortality

  • Working Paper 106 was published in June 2018. The working paper describes methods for, and analyses the results of determining populations at high ages, and extending graduating mortality rates to high ages. This paper has been made publicly available.

  • Supplementary material to CMI Working Paper 100 was published in October 2017. Following requests from Subscribers, a supplementary note has been issued detailing the framework for extending graduated mortality rates to higher ages together with a spreadsheet containing illustrative mortality rates from applying the method to selected tables from the CMI’s “08” Series and “S2” Series. The note is publicly-available but the spreadsheet is only available to authorised users.
     
  • Working Paper 100 was published in June 2017. The working paper illustrates alternative methods of estimating population exposures at high ages, presents analysis of mortality at the oldest ages and describes a framework for setting mortality rates at high ages for portfolio graduations. This paper has been made publicly available
     
  • Working Paper 85 was published in October 2015. The Working Paper presents the initial findings of the High Age Mortality Working Party. The Working Party was established to investigate issues relating to the estimation of mortality at very high ages. Alongside the report, the CMI is also releasing a reading list for users who would like to read more around this issue. The paper and reading list are publicly available.

Unisex mortality rates

The CMI has produced a set of unisex mortality rates that are intended for:

  • actuaries undertaking Transfer Value Analysis in accordance with COBS 19.1 of the FCA Sourcebook
  • actuaries preparing projections for Key Features Illustrations in accordance with COBS 13 Annex 2 of the FCA Sourcebook, and
  • actuaries producing Statutory Money Purchase Illustrations in accordance with the FRC's Actuarial Standards Technical Memorandum TM1. 

Note that an updated set of rates was issued in December 2018 including values applicable for the year commencing 6 April 2019.

Related documents

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

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Events calendar

  • TIGI 2019 (Technical Issues in General Insurance)

    Royal College of Physicians, 11 St Andrews Place, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4LE
    25-26 April 2019
    Spaces available

    This General Insurance CPD offering has been changed from former years of individual one day seminars to include individual sessions for IFRS 17, Pricing, Capital Modelling and Reserving over a two-day event  packaged as Technical Issues in General Insurance, providing attendees with a varied program . The event is suitable for anyone who works, or are interested, in these areas.

  • Francophone Actuaries Meeting 2019

    Aviva, Saint Helen's, 1 Undershaft, London EC3P 3DQ, UK
    2 May 2019

    Spaces available

    L'Institut des Actuaires and French actuaries in the UK, partnered with Aviva, are delighted to be hosting their annual "l'afterwork" event for French speaking actuaries in the UK. The event will mix French and English interventions.

    Register via this link to be added to the guest list:  https://www.eventbrite.com/e/rencontre-annuelle-des-actuaires-francophones-londres-tickets-59758941603

     

     

  • Spaces available

    CPD

    CPD
    1.00 hours

    The CMI SAPS Mortality Committee and Mortality Projections Committee will be holding a joint webinar, aimed primarily at pension scheme trustees, describing considerations relating to setting longevity assumptions in 2019.

  • SIAS EVENT - Hurricane Clustering: A New Reality?

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    7 May 2019

    Spaces available

    The 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most active on record. We saw multiple hurricanes coming close together causing significant damage and human loss. The talk discusses whether 2017 was an exceptional year or indicative of what we expect to see in the near future, and the implications for (re)insurers.

  • IFoA Asia Conference 2019, Chengdu

    Crowne Plaza Chengdu Panda Garden, Poly Park 198, No. 1980 ShuLong Avenue,Xindu District, Chengdu
    09-10 May 2019
    Spaces available

    IfoA Logo for eventsOffering a diverse selection of plenary sessions and cross-practice workshops, the annual Asia Conference is the perfect opportunity to discover and discuss current and developing actuarial topics in Asia, whilst providing excellent opportunity to grow your network of contacts.

  • DAG event - Can we overcome unconscious bias?

    KPMG LLP  Saltire Court,  20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2EG
    9 May 2019

    Spaces available

    This session will examine our biases, look at what it feels like to be an outsider and give attendees practical tools and actions we can all take to support and grow diversity and inclusion, within the profession. This session is also designed to meet the objectives of the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training for experienced members.

  • Welsh Actuarial Society event – The Annual Funding Statement 2019

    Quantum Advisory’s Cardiff Office, Cypress House, Pascal Cl, St. Mellons CF3 0LW
    13 May 2019

    Spaces available

    Join us as Neil Bull from the Pensions Regulator presents on “The Annual Funding Statement 2019”.  His presentation will include a discussion on the key messages of the AFS 2019 including the Long Term Funding Target, maturity, what tPR expects of Trustees / Employers and the new regulatory approach.

    RSVP

  • KSS event – IQ+EQ = Future Success

    Royal London, 1 Thistle Street, Edinburgh
    14 May 2019

    Spaces available

    In this interactive session, our facilitators, Russell Borland and Thomas Chalmers, Partners of UK-based coaching consulting firm, Leading Figures, will explore how we can enhance our EQ to make the most of our IQ. They will introduce an Emotional Intelligence framework developed by psychologist Daniel Goleman and provide participants with an opportunity to personally assess their own Emotional Intelligence.  To register please email Caitlin.stronach@royallondon.com

  • CILA 2019

    30 Euston Square, London NW1 2FB
    14 May 2019

    Spaces available

    CILA is one of the pre-eminent events in the annual Life calendar. It is aimed at practicing life actuaries from life offices, consulting firms and other employers of actuaries. It will also be of interest to all those who work in or advise on, the life assurance market in the UK and Europe.

  • KSS event – Bulk Annuity Market Update

    Willis Towers Watson 2 Lochrin Square, 96 Fountainbridge, Edinburgh EH3 9QA
    15 May 2019

    Fully booked.

    This KSS talk will give a bulk annuity market update over 2018 and for 2019 and beyond.  The presenters will also consider bulk annuity options as part of pension scheme de-risking strategies, and how pension schemes can best prepare when requesting a quote in order to achieve a favourable outcome. Please note this event is now full, however, if you wish to join a waiting list, please email Dawn.Neil@willistowerswatson.com.

  • KSS event – Bulk Annuity Market Update

    Willis Towers Watson 2 West Regent Street Glasgow G2 1RW
    16 May 2019

    Spaces available

    This KSS talk will give a bulk annuity market update over 2018 and for 2019 and beyond. The presenters will also consider bulk annuity options as part of pension scheme de-risking strategies, and how pension schemes can best prepare when requesting a quote in order to achieve a favourable outcome. To book a place please email Dawn.Neil@willistowerswatson.com

  • How to protect SMEs from Cyber Attacks

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ.  
    16 May 2019

    Spaces available

    The aim of this interdisciplinary symposium is to gain understanding and awareness of UK private SMEs about their insurance need as a part of cyber risk management and mitigation strategies.

  • Risk and Investment Conference 2019

    Amba Hotel, Charing Cross, Strand, London WC2N 5HX
    20-21 May 2019
    Spaces available

    This year's event begins with a Professional Skills Training plenary to help build your CPD, followed by a formal drinks reception and dinner on the evening of 20 May.  The following day will then be a programme full of topical plenaries and workshops covering the latest trends and topical issues in the risk and investment sector with plenty of opportunities to network with colleagues and build your CPD.

  • LMS Invited Lectures 2019

    ICMS, The Bayes Centre, 47 Potterrow, Edinburgh EH8 9BT
    20 May 2019 - 24 May 2019

    Spaces available

    On May 20-24 2019, Prof Søren Asmussen (Aarhus University) will deliver a course on lectures on advanced topics in life insurance mathematics.  This will be held at the International Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Edinburgh, and will be accompanied by supporting lectures from Prof Corina Constantinescu (University of Liverpool) and Prof Andrew Cairns (Heriot-Watt University). To register, please visit https://www.icms.org.uk/LMSAsmussen.php.

  • Mortality and Longevity Symposium 2019

    ICC Birmingham, Broad St, Birmingham B1 2EA
    04-05 June 2019
    Spaces available

    The Mortality and Longevity Symposium aims to expand delegates’ horizons by giving a better view of the scope of current mortality research in a wide variety of relevant disciplines, and by providing a forum to discuss the implications for actuarial practice and it will be of interest to all actuaries concerned with setting or reviewing mortality and longevity assumptions, underwriters, demographers, epidemiologists, policy-

  • Protection, Health and Care Conference 2019

    ICC Birmingham  Broad St, Birmingham B1 2EA
    04-06 June 2019
    Spaces available

    The Protection, Health and Care Conference is an annual conference aimed at all insurance professionals with a passion for harnessing insurance risk in their organisations. The conference uses a combination of workshops by individuals who work at the coalface and ‘big name’ experts to explore how innovation, technological/medical advances, the political landscape and other market development will impact the Protection, Health and Care markets.

  • NED Event: Behavioural Finance and Boards

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    18 June 2019

    Spaces available

    Substantial work has been undertaken in the field of behavioural finance to explore the psychological factors affecting investment decisions made by individuals.  In contrast, “behavioural” factors (such as politics or human psychology) affecting decisions and actions made by institutional investors, such as insurers or pension schemes, are less understood.

  • Pensions Conference 2019

    Bristol Marriott Hotel City Centre, 2 Lower Castle Street, Old Market, Bristol, BS1 3AD
    18-19 June 2019
    Spaces available

    Covering current topics and industry trends, the conference also includes a pre-conference evening dinner (18 June) giving you the opportunity to develop your network. 

  • KSS event – FinTech and The Actuarial Profession

    EY, Atria One, 144 Morrison Street, Edinburgh
    19 June 2019

    Spaces available

    This KSS talk from FinTech Scotland's CEO will explore the mission to create an integrated Fintech ecosystem through provision of funding, support, infrastructure and talent that recognises and responds to the needs of all stakeholders - and the overarching aim for Scotland to be one of the top 5 Fintech global leaders by 2020.

    To book your place, please email Barry_Shannon@standardlife.com 

  • Current Issues in General Insurance (CIGI) 2019

    Inmarsat, 99 City Road, London, EC1Y 1BJ
    19 June 2019

    Spaces available

    CIGI will provide an excellent and diverse line-up of speakers, each providing their insight and knowledge on a range of topics.  The programme will be broad in nature, so will be of most value to those with some experience in the industry. 

  • AGM and Presidential Address 2019

    The Hub  Castlehill Edinburgh EH1 2NE
    26 June 2019

    Spaces available

    Notice is hereby given that the ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING of the INSTITUTE AND FACULTY OF ACTUARIES will be held at The Hub, Edinburgh on Wednesday 26 June 2019 at 16.30 (Preceded by tea from 16.00) and followed by a PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS given by John Taylor.

  • SIAS: The Impact of Air Pollution on Health and Life Expectancy

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    2 July 2019

    Spaces available

    Air pollution has gained increasing attention lately. Nicola Oliver, head of longevity and mortality research for Medical Intelligence, will discuss not only the impacts of air pollution on health and life expectancy but also how as an industry we should be addressing it.

  • GIRO Conference 2019

    EICC, The Exchange, 150 Morrison St, Edinburgh EH3 8EE
    24-26 September 2019
    Spaces available

    GIRO is attended annually by over 800 delegates and speakers who are keen to discuss key topics such as Pricing, Reserving, Modelling and the future of the insurance industry. GIRO 2018 was a huge success and we have opened bookings early for what we hope will be another brilliant conference at the EICC in Edinburgh this year.