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Mortality projections
  • Working Paper 103 was released in November 2017. This describes updates to the CMI_2016 software and contains a number of disparate analyses that are intended to be helpful to users of the CMI Model. The paper and Model are available to Authorised Users only. An Executive Summary of the paper is available to all.

  • An updated version of the CMI_2016 software was released in November 2017. The main change is to allow users to easily calibrate the Model to international data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD). There are also minor updates to improve the usability of the software. These changes do not affect the CMI_2016 projections.

  • An updated version of the user guide (Working Paper 99) has been issued to reflect the updates made to the Model.

  • An updated version of Working Paper 97 was released in November 2017 to correct an error in table A2.1.

  • The Committee held a meeting at Staple Inn on 11 April 2017, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss recent mortality experience and the prospects for future mortality improvements.  Slides and an audio recording are available from the SIAS website.

  • The Committee does not intend updating the CMI library of mortality projections in future. However, given the interest in the National Population Projections, we have requested details of the 2014-based projections from the ONS in the form contained in the library.  Corresponding life expectancies are here.

Annuitant mortality

  • As part of the work on illustrative high age extensions (see below), it became apparent that the “08” Series Annuities tables, issued alongside Working Paper 81, were not rounded to six decimal places, as is conventional CMI practice. The impact of this should be insignificant and the Annuities Committee has decided not to re-issue the rates, as this could create confusion.

  • Working Paper 101 was published in July 2017. This paper describes the experience of pension annuities in payment over the period 2011 to 2014. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only. An Executive Summary of the paper is available to all.

    Following the release of Working Paper 101, a survey was sent to a sample of life insurers seeking their views on data submissions and the prioritisation of future work. The Annuities Committee has considered responses to the survey and produced a response document, which outlines responses to the survey and intended future work.

Assurances (critical illness and mortality)

  • The Assurances Committee has issued Working Paper 94 which finalises the “08” Series assurances tables. This follows the consultation on the proposed tables, described in Working Paper 89 for accelerated critical illness and in Working Paper 92 for term mortality. The latest paper summarises the responses to the consultation, sets out the Committee’s rationale for retaining the proposed rates and outlines our plans for future work. The paper and the accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only
  • The Committee is keen to receive outstanding assurances data for 2011-2016 to allow "All Offices" results for all years to be produced. A brief summary of data requirements is available here.
  • The Committee is intending to investigate offices’ appetite to participate in a specific exercise focusing on guaranteed acceptance whole of life mortality experience. 

Income protection

  • Individual IP “All offices” experience results for the 2007-2010 quadrennium were released in March 2017 alongside Working Paper 96. The working paper describes the experience and updates some of the analysis by cause of sickness contained in Working Paper 72. A database of individual IP experience by cause of sickness, spanning 1991-2010, was also released. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only. An executive summary of the paper is available to all. 
  • Supplementary analyses to those included in Working Paper 96 were released in Working Paper 102 in August 2017. These consider IP experience in 2003-2010 by benefit amount and policy duration, two factors not included in regular analyses. The paper is available to Authorised Users only. An executive summary of the paper is available to all.

Self-administered pension schemes (SAPS) mortality

  • CMI Working Paper 95 was published in February 2017. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data received by 30 June 2016, covering the period 2008 to 2015. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper, although an executive summary is available to all.
  • Working Paper 86 was published in November 2015. This paper presents an investigation into the mortality experience by industry classification of pensioners of self-administered pension schemes covering the period 2006 to 2013.You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.

High Age Mortality

  • Supplementary material to CMI Working Paper 100 was published in October 2017. Following requests from Subscribers, a supplementary note has been issued detailing the framework for extending graduated mortality rates to higher ages together with a spreadsheet containing illustrative mortality rates from applying the method to selected tables from the CMI’s “08” Series and “S2” Series. The note is publicly-available but the spreadsheet is only available to Authorised Users.
  • CMI Working Paper 100 was published in June 2017. The working paper illustrates alternative methods of estimating population exposures at high ages, presents analysis of mortality at the oldest ages and describes a framework for setting mortality rates at high ages for portfolio graduations. This paper has been made publicly available
  • CMI Working Paper 85 was published in October 2015. The Working Paper presents the initial findings of the High Age Mortality Working Party. The Working Party was established to investigate issues relating to the estimation of mortality at very high ages. Alongside the report, the CMI is also releasing a reading list for users who would like to read more around this issue. The paper and reading list are publicly available.

Unisex rates

  • The CMI has produced a set of unisex rates that are intended for:
     
    • actuaries undertaking Transfer Value Analysis in accordance with COBS 19.1 of the FSA Sourcebook
    • actuaries preparing projections for Key Features Illustrations in accordance with COBS 13 Annex 2 of the FSA Sourcebook, and
    • actuaries producing Statutory Money Purchase Illustrations in accordance with the FRC's Actuarial Standards Technical Memorandum TM1. 

Note that an updated set of rates was issued in November 2016 including values applicable for the year commencing 5 April 2017.
 

Related documents

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk