Mortality projections

  • CMI_2020 was published in March 2021, accompanied by CMI Working Paper 147. The Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2020. You must be an Authorised User to access the Model and the accompanying documents.
     
  • A separate frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2020 has also been issued.
     
  • The Committee will host a meeting at Staple Inn on 13 April 2021, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss mortality improvements in light of the coronavirus pandemic. Further details are available from the SIAS website.
     
  • The Q4 2020 mortality monitor (dated January 2021) is now available. The next quarterly update, for Q1 2021, is expected in April 2021. We have published more frequent abbreviated updates during the coronavirus pandemic. 
     
  • Working Paper 144 was published in December 2020. It contains a number of analyses that are intended to be helpful to users of the CMI Model. This paper is available to Authorised Users only. An updated version was issued in February 2021 to correct several figures for mortality improvements and confidence intervals that were mis-stated in Tables 6.5, A1.2, A1.3 and A1.4. The corresponding charts were not affected, so are unchanged.
     
  • Working Paper 127 was reissued in December 2020 with a prominent “health warning” due to the discovery that a number of submissions were inadvertently omitted from the analysis of improvements in the SAPS dataset. The analysis in this section is superseded by the analysis in Working Paper 144.
     
  • The Mortality Projections Committee has published the results of the Subscriber survey carried out in late 2019 in CMI Working Paper 135. The Working Paper also includes the Committee’s future plans.

Annuitant mortality

  • Working Paper 148 was published in April 2021. This paper describes the seasonality of experience of pension annuities in payment in 2015 to 2019 and the experience by socio-economic status based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) in 2019/20. This paper is available to Authorised Users only
  • Working Paper 145 was published in December 2020. This paper describes the experience of pension annuities in payment over the period 2016 to 2019. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.

  • Working Paper 140 was published in October 2020. The coronavirus pandemic caused abnormally high mortality for the general population of the UK during the second quarter of 2020. This paper describes indicative analysis of pensioner annuitant mortality to 30 June 2020 and compares the experience of annuitants with that of the England & Wales population. The paper is available to Authorised Users only.

  • Working Paper 138 was published in September 2020. This paper describes analysis of data by socio-economic status in the subset of the 2015-2018 pension annuities in payment dataset that included indicators based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), and region. A Tableau Workbook and accompanying dataset are released alongside the paper. The paper and accompanying files are available to Authorised Users only.

  • Working Paper 134 was published in July 2020. This paper was issued alongside the final '16' Series pension annuities in payment mortality tables. The paper and spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only. A briefing note on the tables is publicly-available.
  • Working Paper 133 was published in June 2020. This paper describes the experience of life annuities over the period 2013 to 2018. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.

Assurances (critical illness and mortality)

  • Working Paper 132 was published in May 2020. This paper describes the experience of term assurances in the years 2015 to 2018. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only
     
  • Working Paper 125 was published in November 2019. This paper describes further analysis of the experience of term assurances in the years 2011 to 2016 using generalised linear models (GLMs). The paper is available to Authorised Users only.
     
  • The Committee has contacted known providers of Whole of life policies (both Underwritten and “Guaranteed acceptance”) for the years 2011-2018, to gauge their willingness and ability to submit data. This document sets out more details. We hope to be able to initiate data collection soon.

COVID-19 Working Party

  • The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in mortality (and likely morbidity) experience in the general population in 2020. In response to this, the COVID-19 Working Party was set up in July 2020 to investigate the implications of COVID-19 on the CMI and to produce a consistent methodology that could be adopted by the CMI investigation committees. It is also hoped that any methodology developed will be useful to CMI Subscribers for their own internal analyses.
     
  • Working Paper 139 describes considerations for setting base and trend mortality and morbidity best estimate assumptions in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
     
  • The paper included a consultation which has now closed. The Working Party is considering the content and timing of its next working paper, which may be published in the second half of 2021.

Income protection

Important note: We have identified issues with some of the data underlying the “All offices” claim inceptions experience for 2011-2016 and “IP11” claim inception rates. One issue leads to an overstatement of inceptions exposure and therefore an understatement of claim inception rates, that could be material (terminations experience is unaffected). We have contacted all CMI subscribers to notify them of this issue and are currently working to quantify the impact.

  • The CMI is seeking to appoint a number of volunteers to become members of the CMI Income Protection Committee. If you are interested in finding out more then please take a look at our advert on the IFoA volunteer vacancies page.
     
  • Working Paper 136 was published in September 2020. This paper summarises feedback on the proposed “IP11” claim inception and termination rates, released for consultation in April 2020 and finalises these rates, including a brief recap on their derivation and resulting models. The paper is available to Authorised Users only. A briefing note on the rates is publicly-available.
     
  • An updated version of the CMI Income Protection Rate Table Tool was released in October 2020. Version 1.2 updates the CMI IP Tool to incorporate the “IP11” claim inception and termination rates. The CMI IP Tool and accompanying user guide are available to authorised users only.
  • Individual IP “All offices” experience results for the period 2011-2016 were released in September 2019 alongside Working Paper 124. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to authorised users only.

Self-administered pension schemes (SAPS) mortality

  • Working Paper 146 was published in February 2021. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience by region and Index of Multiple Deprivation over the period 2012 to 2019. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.
     
  • Working Paper 142 was published in November 2020. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data received by 30 June 2020, covering the period 2012 to 2019. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.
  • Working Paper 121 was published in May 2019. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data by industry classification over the period 2010 to 2017. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.

  • The “S3” Series mortality tables were issued in December 2018 alongside Working Paper 113. The working paper summarises feedback on the consultation and describes the final tables. You must be an Authorised User to access the paper and associated outputs. 

  • A webinar that explains the background to the S3 tables is now available to IFoA members. View the webinar

  • A separate briefing note on the “S3” Series mortality tables has also been issued. This is aimed at those receiving advice based on the tables, such as pension scheme trustees, and is publicly available.

Unisex mortality rates

The CMI has produced a set of unisex mortality rates. These rates will assist actuaries who are:

  • undertaking Transfer Value Analysis in accordance with COBS 19.1 of the FCA Sourcebook;
  • preparing projections for Key Features Illustrations in accordance with COBS 13 Annex 2 of the FCA Sourcebook; and
  • producing Statutory Money Purchase Illustrations in accordance with the FRC’s Actuarial Standard Technical Memorandum TM1.

The set was updated in December 2020 to include values applicable for the year commencing 6 April 2021.

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

Filter or search events

Start date
E.g., 23/04/2021
End date
E.g., 23/04/2021

Events calendar

  • Actuarial Innovation in the COVID-19 era

    This event is online. 
    26 April 2021 - 7 May 2021
    Spaces available

    Join us for this brand new IFoA webinar weries comprising of a fortnight of webinars, panel sessions and a hackathon, that showcase the range of ways in which the actuarial profession has added value, in the public interest, to the understanding and management of the current and future pandemics through insight and learning.

  • Spaces available

    This event is also repeated on Tuesday 27 April, 09.00-10.30. Please click here to register your place if Tuesday is your preferred choice.

    Actuaries have a lot to offer biodiversity management over the next decade as the world develops more depth to its response to this global challenge. This sessional offers an opportunity to learn about this emergent risk, to contribute to our thinking as a profession and help us develop the next steps forward.

  • Europe Town Hall

    28 April 2021

    Spaces available

    IFoA Immediate Past President John Taylor would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual Europe Town Hall, hosted by John Taylor with IFoA Council Members Alan Rae, Jennifer Hartley, Maribel Vasquez Flores and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann.

  • Spaces available

    Sessional Meeting - Free to viewMis-estimation risk is a key element of demographic risk, and past work has focused on mis-estimation risk on a run-off basis.  However, this does not meet the requirements of regulatory regimes like Solvency II, which demands that capital requirements are set through the prism of a finite horizon like one year.  This paper presents a value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk suitable for Solvency II work

  • Finance & Investment Virtual Conference 2021

    Available to watch globally in May.
    10-12 May 2021
    Spaces available

    This year's Finance and Investment Virtual Conference takes on the timely theme of ‘resilience’, something we have all learnt a lot more about in the last year! Our diverse range of talks will explore the theme of resilience in a variety of ways including in building robust investment portfolios, in the incorporation of ESG factors, in govern

  • Spaces available

    This talk will explore the potential benefits that wearable tech can bring to health & protection insurers and their customers. The traditional approach of integrating wearables into insurance has largely focused on measuring steps and using rewards-based incentive programs to encourage more activity.

  • Spaces available

    Join us for this talk with Professor Sir Adrian Smith as part of the 'Dr Patrick Poon Presidential Speaker Series'. Professor Smith joined The Alan Turing Institute as Institute Director and Chief Executive in September 2018. In November 2020, he became President of the Royal Society, in addition to his leadership of the Turing. He is also a member of the government's AI Council, which helps boost AI growth in the UK and promote its adoption and ethical use in businesses and organisations across the country. He received a knighthood in the 2011 New Year Honours list.

     

  • CILA 2021

    Available to watch globally in May.
    19-21 May 2021
    Spaces available

    We continue to live in a world of global uncertainty. Survival depends on our ability to simultaneously navigate through the diverse root-causes, ranging from: the consequences of Climate Change; on-going financial consequences of the COVID pandemic; or self-imposed changes in regulatory requirements and accounting standards.

  • Spaces available

    This is a free webinar on the consultation on changes to the Practising Certificates (PC) Scheme.

    The proposals come from a recent review of the PC Scheme which was the first substantive look at the IFoA’s approach to the requirements and process for PCs since 2010. It responds directly to feedback received on how the current scheme works especially that received from members and PC Holders.

  • Pensions Conference 2021

    Online webinar series
    16-22 June 2021
    Spaces available

    Welcome to the programme for our 2nd Virtual Pensions Conference. This year's conference features 11 webinars offering members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the pension industry. There will also be opportunity to ask questions and contribute to the discussion.

  • Spaces available

    Given our commitment to the safety of our members and employees, and as the easing of restrictions in respect of COVID-19 cannot be guaranteed at this point in time, we have decided to hold our AGM virtually again this year.

    The Business of the AGM

  • Spaces available

    This is a free webinar on the consultation on changes to the Practising Certificates (PC) Scheme.

    The proposals come from a recent review of the PC Scheme which was the first substantive look at the IFoA’s approach to the requirements and process for PCs since 2010. It responds directly to feedback received on how the current scheme works especially that received from members and PC Holders.