Mortality projections

  • CMI_2021 was published in March 2022, accompanied by CMI Working Paper 160. The Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2021. You must be an Authorised User to access the Model and the accompanying documents.
     
  • A separate frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2021 has also been issued.
     
  • The Committee hosted a meeting at Staple Inn on 5 April 2022, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss how Covid-19, social care, and climate change may affect future mortality. The slides and recording are now available. For the recording, please use the passcode: 4KP5=+s. 
     
  • We are publishing frequent updates to our mortality monitor during the coronavirus pandemic. 
     
  • An issue has been found that affects the software for CMI_2018 version 3, CMI_2019 version 1, and CMI_2020 version 1. Details of the issue, and revised versions of the software, can be found on the web pages for the relevant Model versions, linked in the preceding sentence.
     
  • Working Paper 159 was published in December 2021. It contains a number of analyses that are intended to be helpful to users of the CMI Model. This paper is available to Authorised Users only.
  • The Mortality Projections and SAPS committees hosted a joint webinar on 8 December 2021. This webinar covered: recent mortality experience in the SAPS dataset and the general population; the CMI Model benchmarking survey; the MPC 2021 interim update paper; plans for CMI_2021; and initial thoughts on possible "S4" Series pensioner mortality tables. The webinar will be presented by Cobus Daneel (Chair of Mortality Projections Committee) and Matthew Fletcher (Chair of SAPS Committee). A recording of the webinar is now available to view for Authorised Users only. 
     
  • The Mortality Projections Committee has published the results of the CMI Model benchmarking survey in CMI Working Paper 153.
     
  • The Committee hosted a meeting at Staple Inn on 13 April 2021, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss mortality improvements in light of the coronavirus pandemic. The Slides are available from the SIAS website.

Annuitant mortality

  • Working Paper 161 was published in March 2022. This paper describes the experience of pension annuities in payment in 2020 and includes indicative analysis of experience to mid-2021. Summary results and datasheets are available as accompanying spreadsheets. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only. 
     
  • Working Paper 155 was published in October 2021. This paper describes the experience of enhanced pension annuities in payment over the period 2011-2019 and includes indicative analysis of experience to mid-2020. The results are available in accompanying spreadsheets. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only
     
  • Working Paper 148 was published in April 2021. This paper describes the seasonality of experience of pension annuities in payment in 2015 to 2019 and the experience by socio-economic status based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) in 2019/20. This paper is available to Authorised Users only.
  • Working Paper 138 was published in September 2020. This paper describes analysis of data by socio-economic status in the subset of the 2015-2018 pension annuities in payment dataset that included indicators based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), and region. A Tableau Workbook and accompanying dataset are released alongside the paper. The paper and accompanying files are available to Authorised Users only.

  • Working Paper 134 was published in July 2020. This paper was issued alongside the final '16' Series pension annuities in payment mortality tables. The paper and spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only. A briefing note on the tables is publicly-available.
  • Working Paper 133 was published in June 2020. This paper describes the experience of life annuities over the period 2013 to 2018. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.

Assurances (critical illness and mortality)

  • The Assurance Committee has added clarification regarding the format of the rates in the spreadsheets containing the “08” and “16” Series term assurance tables. The rates themselves are unchanged from the previous versions. Please see Working Paper 94 and Working Paper 154 for the updated spreadsheets.
     
  • Following consultation, the Assurances Committee has finalised the “16” Series tables for mortality (including terminal illness) and for accelerated critical illness under non-rated term assurance policies, based on 2015 to 2018 data, alongside Working Paper 154. These tables (which are unchanged from the proposed tables) are more fully described in Working Paper 150. The papers and the accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.
     
  • Working Paper 152 was published in June 2021. This paper describes the experience of term assurances in the years 2015 to 2018 and 2019 plus it includes indicative analysis of experience to mid-2020. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.
     
  • The Assurances Committee has issued accelerated critical illness experience analysis by cause of claim, based on 2015 to 2018 data. This is described in CMI Working Paper 151 which was published in June 2021. The paper provides cause-specific context to the proposed “16” Series accelerated critical illness tables, as well as comparisons of the recent experience with the last CMI cause-specific analysis (2003-2006). The paper and the accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.
     
  • The Committee hosted a webinar in June 2021, which gave an overview of the proposed “16” Series tables and briefly covered the cause of claim analysis and analysis of term assurances experience to mid-2020. A recording of the webinar is now available to Authorised Users only.
     
  • The Committee has collected sufficient volumes of data for Whole of life policies (both Underwritten and “Guaranteed acceptance”) for the years 2011-2018 to progress with analysis, to be released later in 2021.

COVID-19 Working Party

  • The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in mortality (and likely morbidity) experience in the general population in 2020. In response to this, the COVID-19 Working Party was set up in July 2020 to investigate the implications of COVID-19 on the CMI and to produce a consistent methodology that could be adopted by the CMI investigation committees. It is also hoped that any methodology developed will be useful to CMI Subscribers for their own internal analyses.
     
  • Working Paper 139 describes considerations for setting base and trend mortality and morbidity best estimate assumptions in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
     
  • The paper included a consultation which has now closed. The Working Party is considering the content and timing of its next working paper, which may be published in the second half of 2021.

Income protection

  • Working Paper 156 was published in November 2021. In July 2021, the CMI Income Protection Committee conducted a survey, seeking views from CMI-subscribing insurers and reinsurers on the impact of COVID-19 on Income Protection business and experience, and their thoughts on the future. This paper contains an anonymised summary of the qualitative responses to the survey. The paper is available to Authorised Users only. 

  • The Committee hosted a webinar in July 2021, which gave an overview of recent changes in analysis approach and discussed the adjustments to the IP11 claim inceptions graduations. It also provided an overview of the Committee’s current work and ran a number of polls to gather information from attendees on the impact of COVID-19 on IP business. A recording of the webinar is now available to Authorised Users only.

  • Working Paper 149 was published in April 2021. This paper covers changes to the analysis methodology for the CMI Income Protection Investigation and the impact of issues discovered in the data underlying the 2011-2016 claim inceptions experience and the “IP11” claim inception rates. The paper is available to Authorised Users only.

  • Working Paper 136 was originally released in September 2020. This paper summarises feedback on the proposed “IP11” claim inception and termination rates, released for consultation in April 2020 and finalises these rates, including a brief recap on their derivation and resulting models. In April 2021, Working Paper 136 was reissued with a “health warning”, together with a spreadsheet of indicative adjustments to the claim inception rates, following the discovery of underlying data issues. The paper is available to Authorised Users only. A briefing note on the rates is publicly-available.

  • An updated version of the CMI Income Protection Rate Table Tool was originally released in October 2020. Version 1.2 updates the CMI IP Tool to incorporate the “IP11” claim inception and termination rates. The IP Tool was reissued in April 2021 with a “health warning” following the discovery of past data issues affecting the “IP11” claim inception rates. A spreadsheet of indicative adjustments to the rates is available alongside Working Paper 136. The CMI IP Tool and accompanying user guide are available to Authorised Users only.

  • Individual IP “All offices” experience results for the period 2011-2016 were released in September 2019 alongside Working Paper 124. The paper was reissued in April 2021 with a “health warning” following the discovery of data issues affecting the claim inceptions experience. A summary of the impact is included in Working Paper 149. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.

Self-administered pension schemes (SAPS) mortality

  • The Mortality Projections and SAPS committees hosted a joint webinar on 8 December 2021. This webinar covered: recent mortality experience in the SAPS dataset and the general population; the CMI Model benchmarking survey; the MPC 2021 interim update paper; plans for CMI_2021; and initial thoughts on possible "S4" Series pensioner mortality tables. The webinar will be presented by Cobus Daneel (Chair of Mortality Projections Committee) and Matthew Fletcher (Chair of SAPS Committee). A recording of the webinar is now available to view for Authorised Users only. 
     
  • Working Paper 158 was published in November 2021. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data received by 30 June 2021, covering the period 2013 to 2020. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.
     
  • Working Paper 146 was published in February 2021. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience by region and Index of Multiple Deprivation over the period 2012 to 2019. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.
     
  • Working Paper 121 was published in May 2019. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data by industry classification over the period 2010 to 2017. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.
  • The “S3” Series mortality tables were issued in December 2018 alongside Working Paper 113. The working paper summarises feedback on the consultation and describes the final tables. You must be an Authorised User to access the paper and associated outputs. 

  • A webinar that explains the background to the S3 tables is now available to IFoA members. View the webinar

  • A separate briefing note on the “S3” Series mortality tables has also been issued. This is aimed at those receiving advice based on the tables, such as pension scheme trustees, and is publicly available.

Unisex mortality rates

The CMI has produced a set of unisex mortality rates. These rates will assist actuaries who are:

  • undertaking Transfer Value Analysis in accordance with COBS 19.1 of the FCA Sourcebook;
  • preparing projections for Key Features Illustrations in accordance with COBS 13 Annex 2 of the FCA Sourcebook; and
  • producing Statutory Money Purchase Illustrations in accordance with the FRC’s Actuarial Standard Technical Memorandum TM1.

The set was updated in November 2021 to include values applicable for the year commencing 6 April 2022.

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

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Events calendar

  • Spaces available

    At retirement, it has become very popular for those with Defined Contribution (DC) pensions to choose drawdown rather than an annuity, but drawing a sustainable lifetime income in this way is an impossible challenge for most people. We consider a Decumulation Pathway for the typical consumer, where a small part of the DC fund is set aside for any flexible access and legacy requirements. The bulk is then used to provide a lifetime income, utilising the pooling or insuring of longevity risk.

  • CILA 2022

    23 May 2022 - 24 May 2022

    Spaces available

    We continue to live in a world of global uncertainty. Survival depends on our ability to simultaneously navigate through the diverse root-causes, ranging from: the consequences of Climate Change; transitioning to Net Zero; increased inflationary pressures and supply chain issues; to self-imposed changes in regulatory requirements. CILA 2022 focuses on these challenges to ensure we continue to be informed and remain battle ready, as well as showcasing highlights of recent CMI outputs.

  • Spaces available

    In the spirit of fostering the IFoA’s vibrant, global community and enabling our members to participate, we have decided to hold our AGM virtually again this year. This allows for greater accessibility to this important annual event, and for greater accountability of our organisation.

    The Business of the AGM

  • The IFoA Conference 2022

    133 Liverpool St, London EC3A 7BX and Online
    22 June 2022 - 23 June 2022
    Spaces available

    We’re delighted to welcome you back to our first in-person conference since early 2020, also being delivered virtually in our first-ever hybrid event. The theme of our inaugural two-day conference is ‘Focusing on tomorrow’s actuary’ and will explore the contribution actuarial science is making to some of tomorrow’s biggest issues.