COVID-19 Working Party

  • The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in mortality (and likely morbidity) experience in the general population in 2020. In response to this, the COVID-19 Working Party was set up in July 2020 to investigate the implications of COVID-19 on the CMI and to produce a consistent methodology that could be adopted by the CMI investigation committees. It is also hoped that any methodology developed will be useful to CMI Subscribers for their own internal analyses.
     
  • Working Paper 139 describes considerations for setting base and trend mortality and morbidity best estimate assumptions in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
     
  • The paper asks several consultation questions, for which the deadline for providing a response is 1 November 2020.

Mortality projections

  • The Mortality Projections Committee is consulting on proposed changes to the method for CMI_2020 in light of the exceptional mortality experience observed in 2020 to date. CMI Working Paper 137 describes the proposals and seeks feedback from users of the Model by 1 November 2020.
     
  • The Mortality Projections Committee has published the results of the Subscriber survey carried out in late 2019 in CMI Working Paper 135. The Working Paper also includes the Committee’s future plans.
     
  • The Q3 2020 mortality monitor (dated October 2020) is now available. The next quarterly update, for Q4 2020, is expected in January 2021. We have published more frequent abbreviated updates during the coronavirus pandemic.
     
  • The Committee planned to host a meeting at Staple Inn on 1 April 2020, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS). This meeting has been postponed indefinitely, in light of the coronavirus.
     
  • CMI_2019 was published in March 2020, accompanied by CMI Working Paper 129. The Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2019. You must be an Authorised User to access the Model and the accompanying documents.
     
  • A separate frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2019 has also been issued.
     
  • Working Paper 127 was published in December 2019. It contains a number of analyses that are intended to be helpful to users of the CMI Model. This paper is available to Authorised Users only. An updated version was issued in January 2020 to correct minor issues in Sections 5.1 and 8.1.

Annuitant mortality

  • Working Paper 140 was published in October 2020. The coronavirus pandemic caused abnormally high mortality for the general population of the UK during the second quarter of 2020. This paper describes indicative analysis of pensioner annuitant mortality to 30 June 2020 and compares the experience of annuitants with that of the England & Wales population. The paper is available to Authorised Users only.

  • Working Paper 138 was published in September 2020. This paper describes analysis of data by socio-economic status in the subset of the 2015-2018 pension annuities in payment dataset that included indicators based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), and region. A Tableau Workbook and accompanying dataset are released alongside the paper. The paper and accompanying files are available to Authorised Users only.

  • Working Paper 134 was published in July 2020. This paper was issued alongside the final '16' Series pension annuities in payment mortality tables. The paper and spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only. A briefing note on the tables is publicly-available.
  • Working Paper 133 was published in June 2020. This paper describes the experience of life annuities over the period 2013 to 2018. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.

Assurances (critical illness and mortality)

  • Working Paper 132 was published in May 2020. This paper describes the experience of term assurances in the years 2015 to 2018. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only
  • Working Paper 125 was published in November 2019. This paper describes further analysis of the experience of term assurances in the years 2011 to 2016 using generalised linear models (GLMs). The paper is available to Authorised Users only.

  • The Committee has contacted known providers of Whole of life policies (both Underwritten and “Guaranteed acceptance”) for the years 2011-2018, to gauge their willingness and ability to submit data. This document sets out more details. We hope to be able to initiate data collection soon.

Income protection

  • Working Paper 136 was published in September 2020. This paper summarises feedback on the proposed “IP11” claim inception and termination rates, released for consultation in April 2020 and finalises these rates, including a brief recap on their derivation and resulting models. The paper is available to Authorised Users only. A briefing note on the rates is publicly-available.
     
  • An updated version of the CMI Income Protection Rate Table Tool was released in October 2020. Version 1.2 updates the CMI IP Tool to incorporate the “IP11” claim inception and termination rates. The CMI IP Tool and accompanying user guide are available to authorised users only.
  • Individual IP “All offices” experience results for the period 2011-2016 were released in September 2019 alongside Working Paper 124. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to authorised users only.

Self-administered pension schemes (SAPS) mortality

  • Working Paper 142 was published in November 2020. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data received by 30 June 2020, covering the period 2012 to 2019. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.

  • Working Paper 121 was published in May 2019. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data by industry classification over the period 2010 to 2017. You must be an Authorised User to access this paper.

  • The “S3” Series mortality tables were issued in December 2018 alongside Working Paper 113. The working paper summarises feedback on the consultation and describes the final tables. You must be an Authorised User to access the paper and associated outputs. 

  • A webinar that explains the background to the S3 tables is now available to IFoA members. View the webinar

  • A separate briefing note on the “S3” Series mortality tables has also been issued. This is aimed at those receiving advice based on the tables, such as pension scheme trustees, and is publicly available.

Unisex mortality rates

The CMI has produced a set of unisex mortality rates that are intended for:

  • actuaries undertaking Transfer Value Analysis in accordance with COBS 19.1 of the FCA Sourcebook
  • actuaries preparing projections for Key Features Illustrations in accordance with COBS 13 Annex 2 of the FCA Sourcebook, and
  • actuaries producing Statutory Money Purchase Illustrations in accordance with the FRC's Actuarial Standards Technical Memorandum TM1. 

Note that an updated set of rates was issued in December 2019 including values applicable for the year commencing 6 April 2020.

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

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Events calendar

  • Spaces available

    The webinar will discuss the challenges and opportunities schemes face in evaluating end game options, choosing a target state and understanding the impact this strategic decision could have on member outcomes long after the “end state” is reached. Adolfo, Kevin and Rhian bring over 60 years of experience in the industry and a variety of perspectives as scheme actuary, covenant adviser, trustee, de-risking adviser and insurer.

  • Spaces available

    Retail banking is going through a period of substantial change as it moves into the digital age. Banks have large amounts of data about their customers and about their risks. Open data application programming interface (APIs) and data science are enabling banks to use their data to offer innovative and sometimes personalised services. Data science is also adding value in risk areas such as fraud detection and cyber security. At the same time, the move to online banking is making it easier for firms including fintechs to enter banking without having to establish branch networks.

  • UK Town Hall 08:30-09:30

    Webinar
    4 December 2020

    Spaces available

    IFoA President Tan Suee Chieh would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual UK Town Hall 2020, hosted by Tan Suee Chieh with IFoA’s Immediate Past President, John Taylor, President Elect, Louise Pryor and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann.  

  • UK Town Hall 10:00-11:00

    Webinar
    4 December 2020

    Spaces available

    IFoA President Tan Suee Chieh would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual UK Town Hall 2020, hosted by Tan Suee Chieh with IFoA’s Immediate Past President, John Taylor, President Elect, Louise Pryor and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann.  

  • Spaces available

    Cash-flow driven investing is a game-changer for DB pension funds navigating their end-game. Suitable for sponsors who want to reduce risks on their balance sheets. And for trustees, it shifts the focus to providing greater certainty of returns, managing funding level volatility and ensuring they have enough income to pay cash-flow requirements.

  • Spaces available

    Patrick Kennedy, Partner at Gateley Legal and Founding Director of Entrust (a leading professional pensions trustee company), will be delivering an update on the latest legal developments during the course of 2020. With both a pensions legal perspective and over 25 years of trustee service, Patrick will seek to highlight how the letter of the law has continued to evolve against the backdrop of a difficult and challenging year

  • Spaces available

    The talk will provide an understanding of the priorities and relationships between deficit reduction contributions, in the context of wider scheme funding, and different types of value outflow from the employer based on the working party’s recently published report. 

  • Spaces available

    Running off the £2 trillion of UK corporate sector defined benefit liabilities in an efficient and effective fashion is the biggest challenge facing the UK pensions industry. Trustees and sponsors overseeing those schemes need to be clear on their target end-state and the associated journey plan – but too few have well articulated and robust plans.

  • Spaces available

    The actuarial skill set has much to offer the banking industry. So many of the skills that actuaries acquire during their working life translate across to the world of banking and yet banking is perceived as an alien environment to many actuaries. But is it?

  • Spaces available

    Covid-19 has required an urgent and cross-practice initiative to facilitate the extensive impact this pandemic has across all industries. IFoA members have been keen to contribute in a different way, so we developed the IFoA Covid-19 Action Taskforce [ICAT] to coordinate our effort, with a more efficient governance.

    We have over 500 volunteers and countless topics which we have amalgamated into 93 workstreams.