Mortality projections

  • CMI_2017 was published in March 2018, accompanied by CMI Working Paper 105, which was revised in May 2018. The Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2017. You must be an authorised user to access the Model and the accompanying documents.
     
  • A separate Briefing note on CMI_2017 has also been issued. This is aimed at those receiving advice based on the Model, such as pension scheme trustees and Non-Executive Directors of insurance companies and is publicly available.
     
  • The Committee hosted a meeting at Staple Inn on 3 April 2018, following the release of CMI_2017, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS). The meeting discussed recent mortality experience and the prospects for future mortality improvements. The presentation is available from the  SIAS website.

Annuitant mortality

  • As part of the work on illustrative high age extensions (see below), it became apparent that the “08” Series Annuities tables, issued alongside Working Paper 81, were not rounded to six decimal places, as is conventional CMI practice. The impact of this should be insignificant and the Annuities Committee has decided not to re-issue the rates, as this could create confusion.
     
  • Working Paper 101 was published in July 2017. This paper describes the experience of pension annuities in payment over the period 2011 to 2014. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to authorised users only. An Executive Summary of the paper is available to all. Following the release of Working Paper 101, a survey was sent to a sample of life insurers seeking their views on data submissions and the prioritisation of future work. The Annuities Committee has considered responses to the survey and produced a response document, which outlines responses to the survey and intended future work.

Assurances (critical illness and mortality)

  • Working Paper 108 was published in June 2018. This paper describes the experience of term assurances in the years 2011 to 2015. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.
     
  • These results are described as “interim” as the Committee is keen to receive further term assurances data for 2011-2017 to allow final "all offices" results to be produced. A brief summary of data requirements is available on the CMI data page.
     
  • Working Paper 108 includes a summary of the Assurances Committee’s current thinking on future work. We would welcome views on potential approaches to late-reporting for future annual results and on the prioritisation of other work. A survey is available alongside the paper. We are seeking responses to the survey, and other views, by 12 July 2018.

Income protection

  • Working Paper 109 was published in July 2018. The working paper contains a consultation on the proposed “IP06” claim inception rates. The paper an accompanying spreadsheets are available to authorised users only.

  • Individual IP “All offices” experience results for the 2007-2010 quadrennium were released in March 2017 alongside Working Paper 96. The working paper describes the experience and updates some of the analysis by cause of sickness contained in Working Paper 72. A database of individual IP experience by cause of sickness, spanning 1991-2010, was also released. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to authorised users only. An executive summary of the paper is available to all. 
     
  • Supplementary analyses to those included in Working Paper 96 were released in Working Paper 102 in August 2017. These consider IP experience in 2003-2010 by benefit amount and policy duration, two factors not included in regular analyses. The paper is available to authorised users only. An executive summary of the paper is available to all.

Self-administered pension schemes (SAPS) mortality

  • Working Paper 107 was published in June 2018. The working paper contains a consultation on the proposed graduations of the “S3” Series mortality tables. You must be an authorised user to access this paper.

  • Working Paper 104 was published in January 2018. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data received by 30 June 2017, covering the period 2009 to 2016. The Committee intends to use this dataset as the dataset underlying the “S3” Series tables. You must be an authorised user to access this paper, although an Executive Summary is available to all.
     
  • Working Paper 86 was published in November 2015. This paper presents an investigation into the mortality experience by industry classification of pensioners of self-administered pension schemes covering the period 2006 to 2013.You must be an authorised user to access this paper.

High Age Mortality

  • Working Paper 106 was published in June 2018. The working paper describes methods for, and analyses the results of determining populations at high ages, and extending graduating mortality rates to high ages. This paper has been made publicly available.

  • Supplementary material to CMI Working Paper 100 was published in October 2017. Following requests from Subscribers, a supplementary note has been issued detailing the framework for extending graduated mortality rates to higher ages together with a spreadsheet containing illustrative mortality rates from applying the method to selected tables from the CMI’s “08” Series and “S2” Series. The note is publicly-available but the spreadsheet is only available to authorised users.
     
  • CMI Working Paper 100 was published in June 2017. The working paper illustrates alternative methods of estimating population exposures at high ages, presents analysis of mortality at the oldest ages and describes a framework for setting mortality rates at high ages for portfolio graduations. This paper has been made publicly available
     
  • CMI Working Paper 85 was published in October 2015. The Working Paper presents the initial findings of the High Age Mortality Working Party. The Working Party was established to investigate issues relating to the estimation of mortality at very high ages. Alongside the report, the CMI is also releasing a reading list for users who would like to read more around this issue. The paper and reading list are publicly available.

Unisex rates

  • The CMI has produced a set of unisex rates that are intended for:
     
    • actuaries undertaking Transfer Value Analysis in accordance with COBS 19.1 of the FCA Sourcebook
    • actuaries preparing projections for Key Features Illustrations in accordance with COBS 13 Annex 2 of the FCA Sourcebook, and
    • actuaries producing Statutory Money Purchase Illustrations in accordance with the FRC's Actuarial Standards Technical Memorandum TM1. 

    Note that an updated set of rates was issued in November 2017 including values applicable for the year commencing 5 April 2018.

Related documents

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk